Rhode Island vs. Temple: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
RHODTeam statsTEM
- Q4 8:53TEMTyree Alualu 63 Yd Interception Return (Carl Hardin Kick)14–38
- Q3 1:05TEMKeveun Mason 3 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)14–31
- Q2 0:16TEMKeveun Mason 1 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)14–24
- Q2 2:22RHODTyler Budge 1 Yd Run (Ty Groff Kick)14–17
- Q2 9:20TEMJamarcus Pierre 35 Yd Interception Return (Carl Hardin Kick)7–17
- Q1 5:28TEMCarl Hardin 33 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 9:31RHODMarquis Buchanan 35 Yd pass from Tyler Budge (Ty Groff Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:29TEMJayce Freeman 18 Yd pass from Jaxon Smolik (Carl Hardin Kick)0–7
How the model called it
A comfortable Temple win. The film says it was less about fireworks than you'd think.
There was no drama to speak of. Temple dismantles Rhode Island, 38-14 at Lincoln Financial Field. Rhode Island drew level at 7-7 before Temple pulled away for good. Keveun Mason ran 20 times for 158 yards and two scores and caught two passes for 34 yards.
- PassTyler Budge 18/31, 195 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushBrendon Barrow 11 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecMarquis Buchanan 10 REC, 137 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAjani Sheppard 5/10, 85 YDS
- RushKeveun Mason 20 CAR, 158 YDS, 2 TD
- RecColin Chase 3 REC, 43 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEM up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:22RHOD +8%
No Huddle #10 T.Budge rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:16TEM +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 K.Mason rush middle for 1 yard gain to the URI00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 9:20TEM +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Budge pass intercepted by #24 J.Pierre at URI35 broken up by #97 D.Bishop #24 J.Pierre return 35 yards to the URI00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 9:31RHOD +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Budge pass complete short left to #1 M.Buchanan caught at TEM22, for 35 yards to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Rhode Island vs. Temple?
Rhode Island 14, Temple 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEM) was correct.
| RHOD | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 292 | Total yards | 369 |
| 195 | Passing yards | 142 |
| 97 | Rushing yards | 227 |
| 15 | First downs | 19 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 18/31 | Comp/Att | 9/16 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-18 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 29:06 | Possession | 30:54 |
Costliest call
Q2 12:37 RHOD punt on 4th & 2 at RHOD 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:53TEMTyree Alualu 63 Yd Interception Return (Carl Hardin Kick)14–38
- Q3 1:05TEMKeveun Mason 3 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)14–31
- Q2 0:16TEMKeveun Mason 1 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)14–24
- Q2 2:22RHODTyler Budge 1 Yd Run (Ty Groff Kick)14–17
- Q2 9:20TEMJamarcus Pierre 35 Yd Interception Return (Carl Hardin Kick)7–17
- Q1 5:28TEMCarl Hardin 33 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 9:31RHODMarquis Buchanan 35 Yd pass from Tyler Budge (Ty Groff Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:29TEMJayce Freeman 18 Yd pass from Jaxon Smolik (Carl Hardin Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects TEM -22 (90% to win) — 7.5 points clear of TEM's market line of -14.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Keveun Mason ran for 158 yards and Temple did not need much else
A comfortable Temple win. The film says it was less about fireworks than you'd think.
The turnover battle was the game
Temple won the turnover battle 1-3, led by Jamarcus Pierre (1 INT, 1 PBU, 2 tackles), Tyree Alualu (1 INT, 1 PBU, 1.5 tackles) and Jordan Montgomery (1 forced fumble, 1 tackle). Rhode Island converted 6 of 14 third downs (43%) to Temple's 25%, led by Tyler Budge (5/12). Stacked together, that is what turned a close game into this one.
The difference-makers
Keveun Mason ran 20 times for 158 yards and two scores and caught two passes for 34 yards — two of them from inside the 20, two third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Colin Chase caught three passes for 43 yards. Jaxon Smolik threw for 57 yards on six attempts with one touchdown, with that score from inside the 20. For Rhode Island, Tyler Budge threw for 195 yards on 31 attempts with one touchdown and ran nine times for 38 yards and one score, with that score from inside the 20, five third-down conversions and a hand in six plays of 15 yards or more. Marquis Buchanan caught 10 passes for 137 yards, one of them for a touchdown, including a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Brendon Barrow ran 11 times for 39 yards and caught one pass for 5 yards. Jamarcus Pierre was the disruptive one for Temple: 1 INT, 1 PBU, 2 tackles.
What Rhode Island has to fix
The problems had names: Tyler Budge (2 interceptions) and Brendon Barrow (1 lost fumble).
The disruptive ones
Two names to keep: Case Mankins (2 sacks, 2 TFLs, 3 tackles) for Rhode Island and Jamarcus Pierre (1 INT, 1 PBU, 2 tackles) for Temple.
How we got here
Temple struck first through Jaxon Smolik, led 24-14 at the half and Temple got the final points on a late touchdown by Tyler Budge.
How it graded
The closing line had Temple -14.5. Temple covered. The total was 51.5; the teams combined for 52, an over. Keveun Mason accounted for 12 of Temple's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Temple cleared the bar with room to spare; Rhode Island goes back to the drawing board. Tyler Budge was responsible for 12 of Rhode Island's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →