UNLV vs. Hawai'i: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNLVTeam statsHAW
- Q4 4:51UNLVJai'Den Thomas 50 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)21–6
- Q3 1:32HAWSean Olvera-Harle 33 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q2 1:33UNLVJackson Arnold 2 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)14–3
- Q2 14:09HAWSean Olvera-Harle 39 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:33UNLVJackson Arnold 7 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)7–0
How it was won
Arnold’s Q2 TD
Jackson Arnold’s 2‑yard touchdown run in Q2 lifted UNLV’s win chance by 21 points, putting them ahead 14‑3.
4th‑and‑1 punt
Hawai'i’s decision to punt on 4th‑and‑1 at the 71 cost an expected 1.11 points, a missed opportunity that hurt their comeback hopes.
Betting line
UNLV entered as a 3‑point favorite and covered the spread while the game finished under the 55.5‑point total.
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- HAW played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNLV did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 5.2
Nobody had UNLV circled. The numbers behind a result that flips the race.
UNLV wasn't supposed to win this one. They (0-1) shocks Hawai'i (0-1), 21-6 at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex. UNLV was not the side anyone expected to be up 15 at the end of it. Jackson Arnold threw for 116 yards on 18 attempts and ran 16 times for 89 yards and two scores.
- PassJackson Arnold 8/18, 116 YDS
- RushJai'Den Thomas 20 CAR, 143 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeyan Burnett 3 REC, 55 YDS
- PassMicah Alejado 17/41, 176 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDeVon Rice 15 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecDeVon Rice 4 REC, 27 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNLV up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:43HAW +27%
#26 M.Choules punt 35 yards to the Hawaii34 fair catch by #8 T.Uiliata at Hawaii34
- Q2 5:04UNLV +6%
#26 M.Choules punt 50 yards to the Hawaii00, Touchback
FAQ
What was the final score of UNLV vs. Hawai'i?
UNLV 21, Hawai'i 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked HAW, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNLV | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| 364 | Total yards | 294 |
| 116 | Passing yards | 176 |
| 248 | Rushing yards | 118 |
| 18 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 9-20 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 8/18 | Comp/Att | 17/43 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 4.1 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-59 | Penalties | 6-59 |
| 27:55 | Possession | 32:05 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:52 HAW punt on 4th & 1 at HAW 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:51UNLVJai'Den Thomas 50 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)21–6
- Q3 1:32HAWSean Olvera-Harle 33 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q2 1:33UNLVJackson Arnold 2 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)14–3
- Q2 14:09HAWSean Olvera-Harle 39 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:33UNLVJackson Arnold 7 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HAW Elo 1449, UNLV Elo 1566 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HAW -5.3 (62% to win) — 8.3 points clear of HAW's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 16–16 · UNLV has won 3 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| UNLV | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.3 (#68) | CORE overall | -16.0 (#132) |
| -3 / -4 | offense / defense | -12 / +4 |
| 1.83 | points / drive | 1.04 |
| 1.44 | allowed / drive | 2.23 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 42% |
| -7 | pass over expected | +15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Jackson Arnold produced four of UNLV's six explosive plays
Nobody had UNLV circled. The numbers behind a result that flips the race.
UNLV ran on 48% of plays on 1st down all season; in this game, 74% (n=27 such plays) — a sharp in-game departure from the norm.
We had this one the other way
Before kickoff we made Hawai'i the pick by about 8. The model missed the side: it favored Hawai'i by ~8, but UNLV won by 15 as the underdog.
UNLV lived in the backfield
UNLV sacked Hawai'i's quarterback 5 times to Hawai'i's 1, chiefly Tre Fulton (1 sack), Kal-El Togafau (2 sacks) and Elias Rudolph (1 sack). UNLV won the turnover battle 0-1, chiefly Tre Fulton (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 forced fumble, 1 PBU, 8.5 tackles) and Quandarius Keyes (1 INT, 1 PBU, 3.5 tackles). That's what carried UNLV.
Where it swung
Three snaps account for most of the difference. Sitani Mikaele's 1-yard run that came up short on 4th-and-1 at Q4 09:53. Then Jai'Den Thomas's 50-yard run for a touchdown on 1st-and-10 at Q4 04:51. Later, Micah Alejado's dropback that came up short on 2nd-and-1 at Q4 03:42.
Who carried it
Jackson Arnold threw for 116 yards on 18 attempts and ran 16 times for 89 yards and two scores, including two of them from inside the 20, six third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Jai'Den Thomas ran 20 times for 143 yards and one score. Keyan Burnett caught three passes for 55 yards. For Hawai'i, Micah Alejado threw for 176 yards on 41 attempts and ran nine times for 6 yards, including seven third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Josiah Fetui caught two passes for 24 yards, including two third-down conversions. Devon Rice ran 15 times for 73 yards and caught four passes for 27 yards. Tre Fulton was the disruptive one for UNLV: 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 forced fumble, 1 PBU, 8.5 tackles.
The way it played out
UNLV struck first through Jackson Arnold, led 14-3 at the half and UNLV got the final points on a late touchdown by Jai'Den Thomas.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
UNLV just rearranged the conversation. Hawai'i has some explaining to do. Sean Olvera-Harle was responsible for 6 of Hawai'i's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →