Arkansas vs. LSU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARKTeam statsLSU
- Q4 0:05LSUDamian Ramos 20 Yd Field Goal 31–34
- Q4 5:06ARKLuke Hasz 11 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)31–31
- Q4 9:43LSUMalik Nabers 20 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)24–31
- Q4 14:11ARKLuke Hasz 59 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (KJ Jefferson Pass to Luke Hasz for Two-Point Conversion)24–24
- Q3 1:40LSUMalik Nabers 8 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)16–24
- Q3 5:44ARKCam Little 40 Yd Field Goal 16–17
- Q3 14:00LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 49 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)13–17
- Q2 0:30LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 49 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)13–10
- Q2 0:48ARKTyrone Broden 19 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)13–3
- Q2 4:02LSUDamian Ramos 24 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q2 6:33ARKCam Little 23 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 5:56ARKCam Little 23 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassKJ Jefferson 21/31, 289 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushRashod Dubinion 15 CAR, 78 YDS
- RecLuke Hasz 6 REC, 116 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJayden Daniels 20/29, 320 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushLogan Diggs 14 CAR, 97 YDS
- RecBrian Thomas Jr. 5 REC, 133 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLSU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,587 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 5:06ARK +47%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Luke Hasz for 11 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)
- Q4 14:11ARK +33%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Luke Hasz for 59 yds for a TD (KJ Jefferson pass to Luke Hasz for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 1:39LSU +32%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the ARK 4
- Q4 9:43LSU +28%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 20 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
- Q4 0:08LSU +27%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik Nabers
- Q2 0:30LSU +24%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 49 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas vs. LSU?
Arkansas 31, LSU 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LSU) was correct.
| ARK | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 426 | Total yards | 509 |
| 289 | Passing yards | 320 |
| 137 | Rushing yards | 189 |
| 25 | First downs | 26 |
| 8-13 | 3rd down | 6-10 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 21/31 | Comp/Att | 20/29 |
| 9.3 | Yards per pass | 11.0 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 6.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-69 | Penalties | 5-51 |
| 34:22 | Possession | 25:38 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:24 LSU punt on 4th & 11 at ARK 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:05LSUDamian Ramos 20 Yd Field Goal 31–34
- Q4 5:06ARKLuke Hasz 11 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)31–31
- Q4 9:43LSUMalik Nabers 20 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)24–31
- Q4 14:11ARKLuke Hasz 59 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (KJ Jefferson Pass to Luke Hasz for Two-Point Conversion)24–24
- Q3 1:40LSUMalik Nabers 8 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)16–24
- Q3 5:44ARKCam Little 40 Yd Field Goal 16–17
- Q3 14:00LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 49 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)13–17
- Q2 0:30LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 49 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)13–10
- Q2 0:48ARKTyrone Broden 19 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)13–3
- Q2 4:02LSUDamian Ramos 24 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q2 6:33ARKCam Little 23 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 5:56ARKCam Little 23 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LSU Elo 1753, ARK Elo 1620 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LSU -7.7 (71% to win) — 9.8 points clear of ARK's market line of -17.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLSU leads 45–23–2 · LSU has won 4 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| ARK | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.2 (#61) | CORE overall | +21.8 (#10) |
| -5 / -6 | offense / defense | +31 / +10 |
| 1.60 | points / drive | 3.86 |
| 1.99 | allowed / drive | 2.68 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →