Butler vs. Montana: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Butler

0020

Montana

▸0035

Final

Washington-Grizzly Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
BUTL	3	3	14	0	20
MONT	10	11	7	7	35

BUTLTeam statsMONT

304Total yards441

263Pass211

41Rush230

15First downs24

2-133rd down6-15

2Turnovers2

28:45Possession31:15

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:34MONTClifton McDowell 1 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)20–35
• Q3 3:41MONTEli Gillman 24 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)20–28
• Q3 4:48BUTLRyan Lezon 26 Yd pass from Bret Bushka (Luka Zurak Kick)20–21
• Q3 6:57BUTLJyran Mitchell 32 Yd pass from Bret Bushka (Luka Zurak Kick)13–21
• Q2 3:05MONTXavier Harris 3 Yd Run (Ryder Meyer Run for Two-Point Conversion)6–21
• Q2 6:00BUTLLuka Zurak 39 Yd Field Goal 6–13
• Q2 9:43MONTGrant Glasgow 49 Yd Field Goal 3–13
• Q1 6:00BUTLLuka Zurak 29 Yd Field Goal 3–10
• Q1 9:45MONTGrant Glasgow 23 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 14:00MONTJunior Bergen 54 Yd pass from Sam Vidlak (Grant Glasgow Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

• BUTL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 18% explosive on a 27% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MONT 100%50%BUTL 100%

Kickoff159 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MONT (top)BUTL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MONT 100%

Leaders

Butler

• PassBret Bushka 24/35, 263 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushJyran Mitchell 12 CAR, 23 YDS
• RecRyan Lezon 2 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD

Montana

• PassSam Vidlak 15/25, 180 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
• RushEli Gillman 19 CAR, 119 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJunior Bergen 4 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.3sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

142

Points / snap

0.39

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MONT up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,587 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

85%

MONT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WCampbell vs Monmouth37-31WKansas vs BYU38-27WLSU vs Arkansas34-31WTulane vs UAB35-23LLSU vs Ole Miss49-55

Fourth downs

20 calls

BUTL gave up 1.0 points to the model on fourth down.BUTL 9/11 · MONT 7/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Butler vs. Montana?

Butler 20, Montana 35.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MONT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

BUTL

MONT

27%

Success rate

46%

0.32

EPA / pass

0.37

-0.16

EPA / rush

0.32

28%

Early-down success

46%

39%

Pass success

47%

8%

Rush success

46%

18%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

24%

Stuffed rush rate

11%

62%

Pass rate

40%

7.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.0

BUTL

7.9 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

MONT

6.0 yards to go on 3rd down

76 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

BUTL		MONT
304	Total yards	441
263	Passing yards	211
41	Rushing yards	230
15	First downs	24
2-13	3rd down	6-15
1-2	4th down	2-3
24/36	Comp/Att	17/29
7.3	Yards per pass	7.3
1.6	Yards per rush	5.1
2	Turnovers	2
5-45	Penalties	6-65
28:45	Possession	31:15

Fourth downs

20 calls

BUTL

9/11 with the model

−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

MONT

7/8 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 6:34 BUTL go for it on 4th & 10 at BUTL 44. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.49 points.

Every call, priced (20)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

BUTL 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →MONT 6/13 scoring drives

MONTTD3 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1

BUTLFUM3 pl, -12 yds· own 22Q1

MONTFG4 pl, 4 yds· opp 10Q1

BUTLPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1

MONTINT3 pl, 2 yds· own 35Q1

BUTLFG6 pl, 27 yds· opp 39Q1

MONTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 30Q1

BUTLMISS10 pl, 54 yds· own 22Q1

MONTFG14 pl, 44 yds· own 24Q1

BUTLFG8 pl, 53 yds· own 25Q2

MONTTD7 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q2

BUTLPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2

MONTPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 35Q2

BUTLEND2 pl, -2 yds· own 4Q2

BUTLPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q3

MONTPUNT7 pl, 24 yds· own 6Q3

BUTLTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

MONTINT2 pl, 1 yds· own 19Q3

BUTLTD4 pl, 34 yds· opp 34Q3

MONTTD3 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ3

BUTLINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 27Q3

MONTDOWNS10 pl, 54 yds· own 36Q3

BUTLPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 10Q4

MONTTD9 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q4

BUTLDOWNS9 pl, 36 yds· own 25Q4

MONTEND7 pl, 38 yds· own 39Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:34MONTClifton McDowell 1 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)20–35
• Q3 3:41MONTEli Gillman 24 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)20–28
• Q3 4:48BUTLRyan Lezon 26 Yd pass from Bret Bushka (Luka Zurak Kick)20–21
• Q3 6:57BUTLJyran Mitchell 32 Yd pass from Bret Bushka (Luka Zurak Kick)13–21
• Q2 3:05MONTXavier Harris 3 Yd Run (Ryder Meyer Run for Two-Point Conversion)6–21
• Q2 6:00BUTLLuka Zurak 39 Yd Field Goal 6–13
• Q2 9:43MONTGrant Glasgow 49 Yd Field Goal 3–13
• Q1 6:00BUTLLuka Zurak 29 Yd Field Goal 3–10
• Q1 9:45MONTGrant Glasgow 23 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 14:00MONTJunior Bergen 54 Yd pass from Sam Vidlak (Grant Glasgow Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →