Jackson Arnold produced four of UNLV's six explosive plays
Nobody had UNLV circled. The numbers behind a result that flips the race.
UNLV wasn't supposed to win this one. They (0-1) shocks Hawai'i (0-1), 21-6 at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex. UNLV was not the side anyone expected to be up 15 at the end of it. Jackson Arnold threw for 116 yards on 18 attempts and ran 16 times for 89 yards and two scores.
UNLV ran on 48% of plays on 1st down all season; in this game, 74% (n=27 such plays) — a sharp in-game departure from the norm.
We had this one the other way
Before kickoff we made Hawai'i the pick by about 8. The model missed the side: it favored Hawai'i by ~8, but UNLV won by 15 as the underdog.
UNLV lived in the backfield
UNLV sacked Hawai'i's quarterback 5 times to Hawai'i's 1, chiefly Tre Fulton (1 sack), Kal-El Togafau (2 sacks) and Elias Rudolph (1 sack). UNLV won the turnover battle 0-1, chiefly Tre Fulton (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 forced fumble, 1 PBU, 8.5 tackles) and Quandarius Keyes (1 INT, 1 PBU, 3.5 tackles). That's what carried UNLV.
How the two sides actually played on the night.
Where it swung
Three snaps account for most of the difference. Sitani Mikaele's 1-yard run that came up short on 4th-and-1 at Q4 09:53. Then Jai'Den Thomas's 50-yard run for a touchdown on 1st-and-10 at Q4 04:51. Later, Micah Alejado's dropback that came up short on 2nd-and-1 at Q4 03:42.
Who carried it
Jackson Arnold threw for 116 yards on 18 attempts and ran 16 times for 89 yards and two scores, including two of them from inside the 20, six third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Jai'Den Thomas ran 20 times for 143 yards and one score. Keyan Burnett caught three passes for 55 yards. For Hawai'i, Micah Alejado threw for 176 yards on 41 attempts and ran nine times for 6 yards, including seven third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Josiah Fetui caught two passes for 24 yards, including two third-down conversions. Devon Rice ran 15 times for 73 yards and caught four passes for 27 yards. Tre Fulton was the disruptive one for UNLV: 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 forced fumble, 1 PBU, 8.5 tackles.
The way it played out
UNLV struck first through Jackson Arnold, led 14-3 at the half and UNLV got the final points on a late touchdown by Jai'Den Thomas.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
UNLV just rearranged the conversation. Hawai'i has some explaining to do. Sean Olvera-Harle was responsible for 6 of Hawai'i's points; there was not enough behind him.
Discussion
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