vs New Mexico State · Wk 2Win prob 93%Model -22.7Schedule & Results
STANStanfordL27-37✗Wk 1vs
UNLVUNLVL6-21✗Wk 2vsNMSUNew Mexico State-22.793%Wk 4@
WYOWyoming-15.883%Wk 5vs
SJSUSan José State-33.799%Wk 6@
ASUArizona State+2.444%Wk 7vs
UNMNew Mexico-6.064%Wk 8@
NIUNorthern Illinois-22.091%Wk 10@
UTEPUTEP-23.793%Wk 11vs
NDSUNorth Dakota State-13.681%Wk 12@
NEVNevada-13.580%Wk 13vs
SACSacramento State-10.272%Team Leaders
Micah AlejadoPassing448 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
Devon RiceRushing108 yds · 1 TD · 4.2 avg
Kainoa CarvalhoReceiving6 rec · 98 yds · 0 TD
Kona MooreTackles24 tackles · 2 TFL · 0 sacks
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Stanford has a New Quarterback, New Receivers, and Micah Alejado Waiting
Roster · 109 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bjorn Jurgensen | QB | FR | 6'3" | 200 | Orlando, FL |
| 12 | Micah Alejado | QB | SO | 5'10" | 180 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 14 | Isaac Jaramilla-Phe | QB | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Pasadena, CA |
| 16 | Hazyn Botelho | QB | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Kaneohe, HI |
| 0 | Cam Barfield | RB | SR | 5'7" | 190 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 1 | DeVon Rice | RB | SO | 5'9" | 180 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 26 | Sitani Mikaele | RB | SO | 5'11" | 230 | Honolulu, HI |
| 28 | TJ Fo'ilefutu | RB | FR | 6'0" | 240 | Peoria, AZ |
| 30 | James Steffany-Fiame | RB | FR | 5'8" | 175 | Ewa Beach, HI |
| 31 | Noah Bartley | RB | SR | 5'9" | 220 | Waianae, HI |
| 2 | Audric Harris | WR | JR | 6'1" | 190 | Bellflower, CA |
| 3 | Carson Brown | WR | SR | 6'2" | 200 | Des Moines, IA |
| 4 | Jarvis Heimuli | WR | SO | 6'3" | 200 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 5 | Pofele Ashlock | WR | SR | 6'2" | 180 | Euless, TX |
| 6 | Kainoa Carvalho | WR | FR | 5'6" | 165 | Laie, HI |
| 7 | Tre' Griffiths | WR | SO | 6'3" | 205 | Keller, TX |
| 8 | Tama Uiliata | WR | SO | 5'11" | 195 | Waipahu, HI |
| 11 | Devin Alves | WR | SR | 6'3" | 195 | Melbourne, FL |
| 13 | Koa Eldredge | WR | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Honolulu, HI |
| 17 | Nick Delgadillo | WR | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Waianae, HI |
| 18 | Blaze Kamoku | WR | SR | 5'6" | 185 | Kapolei, HI |
| 19 | Diezel Kamoku | WR | SO | 5'9" | 185 | Kapolei, HI |
| 22 | Titan Lacaden | WR | FR | 5'6" | 175 | Kapolei, HI |
| 80 | Robert Haynes IV | WR | FR | 6'2" | 175 | Houston, TX |
| 83 | Josiah Fetui | WR | SO | 6'3" | 185 | Honolulu, HI |
| 84 | Dillon Booth | WR | FR | 5'9" | 180 | Rosamond, CA |
| 86 | Brandon Gaea | WR | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Honolulu, HI |
| 9 | Devon Tauaefa | TE | SR | 6'5" | 230 | Honolulu, HI |
| 45 | Micah Kaonohi-Kaihenui | TE | SR | 5'11" | 255 | Waimanalo, HI |
| 46 | Matthew Bailiff | TE | JR | 6'1" | 235 | Kaysville, UT |
| 74 | Andrew Price | TE | FR | 6'5" | 235 | Boise, ID |
| 81 | Frank Abreu | TE | FR | 6'4" | 235 | Kula, HI |
| 85 | Oakie Salave'a | TE | SR | 6'2" | 240 | Leone |
| 88 | Anthony Hickman | TE | SO | 6'3" | 235 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 50 | Tu'i Muti | OL | SO | 6'1" | 300 | Laie, HI |
| 51 | Eric McFall | OL | SO | 6'4" | 305 | Pago Pago |
| 52 | Dean Briski | OL | SR | 6'5" | 305 | Pago Pago |
| 53 | Kawika Hallums | OL | FR | 6'2" | 295 | Aiea, HI |
| 54 | Jordan Kernaghan | OL | FR | 6'3" | 285 | Ewa Beach, HI |
| 55 | Jay Tauala-Harris | OL | SO | 6'3" | 290 | Long Beach, CA |
| 56 | Boogie Henderson | OL | SO | 6'4" | 310 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 57 | Ethan Spencer | OL | SR | 6'2" | 300 | Kailua, HI |
| 58 | Denaris DeRosa Jr. | OL | SR | 6'3" | 285 | Redwood City, CA |
| 60 | Ezekiel Salanoa | OL | FR | 5'11" | 290 | Honolulu, HI |
| 62 | Lautaimi Manuma | OL | SO | 6'3" | 300 | Ewa Beach, HI |
| 65 | Vake Hehea | OL | JR | 6'4" | 300 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 66 | Cooper Troy | OL | FR | 6'5" | 310 | Edmonton, AB |
| 72 | Josh Tavui | OL | FR | 6'2" | 300 | Ewa Beach, HI |
| 73 | Lipe Moala | OL | JR | 6'6" | 345 | Riverside, CA |
| 74 | Vainuupo Fanuaea | OL | FR | 6'4" | 275 | Nanakuli, HI |
| 75 | Khalil Walker | OL | JR | 6'5" | 300 | Canton, OH |
| 77 | Uluaki Taukiuvea | OL | FR | 6'5" | 300 | West Valley City, UT |
| 79 | Judah Kaio | OL | SR | 6'3" | 305 | Kaneohe, HI |
| 9 | Adam Tomczyk | DL | SR | 6'3" | 255 | Long Beach, CA |
| 10 | Ka'eo Akana | DL | SR | 6'3" | 245 | Honolulu, HI |
| 20 | Noah Wily | DL | SO | 6'3" | 240 | Laie, HI |
| 26 | Nazaiah Caravallo | DL | SO | 6'2" | 235 | Ewa Beach, HI |
| 51 | Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina | DL | JR | 6'4" | 245 | Nu'uuli |
| 52 | Luther McCoy | DL | SR | 6'5" | 270 | Saint Johns, FL |
| 55 | Zoram Petelo | DL | SO | 6'4" | 270 | Savaii |
| 56 | Spencer Elliott | DL | SR | 6'3" | 255 | Bend, OR |
| 88 | Elijah Williams | DL | JR | 6'3" | 300 | Birmingham, AL |
| 90 | Ha'aheo Dela Cruz | DL | SO | 6'2" | 260 | Honolulu, HI |
| 91 | Josh Sagapolutele | DL | JR | 6'0" | 255 | Waimanalo, HI |
| 92 | Waipehe Winchester | DL | SO | 6'2" | 265 | Mililani, HI |
| 95 | Geoffrey Speight Jr. | DL | SR | 6'1" | 280 | Mcdonough, GA |
| 96 | Iosefa Letuli | DL | SO | 6'5" | 270 | Oceanside, CA |
| 97 | Jordan Lynch | DL | SO | 6'3" | 290 | College Station, TX |
| 98 | Tonga Paea | DL | JR | 6'4" | 315 | Auckland |
| 99 | Ozzy Pollard | DL | SO | 6'4" | 300 | Carmel, IN |
| 7 | Julian Smith | LB | JR | 6'0" | 210 | Bakersfield, CA |
| 8 | Matteus Ioane | LB | SO | 6'2" | 225 | Wahiawa, HI |
| 11 | Jamih Otis | LB | SR | 5'11" | 220 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 12 | Wynden Ho'ohuli | LB | SR | 6'3" | 240 | Mililani, HI |
| 17 | Ben Hudson | LB | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Miami, FL |
| 18 | Zaden Mariteragi | LB | FR | 6'1" | 230 | Kahuku, HI |
| 31 | Aisiah Paogofie | LB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Waianae, HI |
| 35 | Junior Fiaui | LB | SO | 6'3" | 215 | San Jose, CA |
| 39 | Zion Vea | LB | FR | 5'10" | 205 | Nanakuli, HI |
| 43 | Alika Cavaco-Amoy | LB | SO | 6'0" | 215 | Waimanalo, HI |
| 47 | Kingston Costales | LB | FR | 5'11" | 210 | Waianae, HI |
| 48 | Kolo Kaululaau | LB | JR | 6'0" | 215 | Kaneohe, HI |
| 49 | Tasi Tadio | LB | JR | 5'11" | 225 | Wahiawa, HI |
| 0 | Jeremiah Hughes | DB | JR | 6'0" | 180 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 2 | Kona Moore | DB | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Kapolei, HI |
| 3 | Joenel Figueroa | DB | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Lawrence, MA |
| 4 | Elijah Palmer | DB | SR | 5'8" | 185 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 5 | Jaylon Edmond | DB | SO | 5'10" | 170 | Long Beach, CA |
| 6 | Zion Allen | DB | SR | 6'1" | 175 | Stockton, CA |
| 13 | Elijah Gipson | DB | SR | 6'0" | 170 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 14 | Riis Weber | DB | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Kailua, HI |
| 19 | Kela Moore | DB | JR | 6'0" | 185 | Kapolei, HI |
| 21 | Makana Meyer | DB | JR | 5'9" | 185 | Waipahu, HI |
| 22 | Ezekiel Rodrigues | DB | SO | 6'0" | 195 | Kaneohe, HI |
| 23 | Kydel Stone | DB | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Chicago, IL |
| 24 | Kodi DeCambra | DB | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Honolulu, HI |
| 25 | Matagi Thompson | DB | SR | 6'2" | 190 | Honolulu, HI |
| 27 | Jahren Altura | DB | FR | 5'10" | 175 | Honolulu, HI |
| 28 | Marquis Richardson | DB | FR | 6'2" | 190 | Chandler, AZ |
| 29 | Kainoa Ontai | DB | JR | 5'11" | 180 | Manteca, CA |
| 30 | Avin Houston | DB | FR | 6'3" | 185 | San Antonio, TX |
| 34 | Brayton Correa | DB | FR | 5'10" | 185 | Honolulu, HI |
| 36 | Jordan Fetu | DB | JR | 5'10" | 175 | Ewa Beach, HI |
| 16 | Hudson Borsari | PK | FR | 5'10" | 175 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 98 | Sean Olvera-Harle | PK | SR | 6'0" | 205 | San Juan Capistrano, CA |
| 43 | Gannon Miller | P | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Boise, ID |
| 47 | Gehrig Heil | P | FR | 6'1" | 195 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 33 | Jack Mowrey | LS | JR | 6'3" | 235 | Charlotte, NC |
| 45 | Nick Pang | LS | SR | 5'10" | 220 | Honolulu, HI |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2 games in
Hawai'i throws it: Timmy Chang's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 4 seasons. The way in is 129th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 112th on first and second down.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Hawai'i has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets3.41#129 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down37%#112 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.04#111 of 138
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.40#40
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.50 / 0.88
- Power / stuff (off)
- 77.8% / 14.0%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 10.2%#126
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 5.1% / 5.1%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.27#132 | -0.11#112 | 0.49#83 |
| Defense | 0.29#129 | -0.02#49 | 0.70#109 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play-0.0114th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.2423rd
- Offense success rate34%15th
- Defense success rate allowed41%36th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs37%13th
- Offense success — passing downs31%40th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs48%31st
- Defense success allowed — passing downs21%69th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.359th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.332nd
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.154th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.623rd
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.366th
- Defense line yards allowed3.411th
- Offense highlight yards0.9049th
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.234th
- Offense power success0.8063rd
- Defense power success allowed0.6761st
- Offense stuff rate0.1366th
- Defense stuff rate0.1316th
Third down
- Third down conversion41%42nd
- Third down distance faced7.525th
- Third down conversion allowed47%26th
- Third down distance forced5.712th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.1515th
- Net success rate — second half-0.0234th
Drives
- Points per drive1.024th
- Points per drive allowed2.242nd
- Average starting field position2419th
- Opponent starting field position2760th
- Available yards gained36%23rd
- Available yards allowed52%38th
- Scoring opportunities per drive71%32nd
- Scoring opportunities allowed77%59th
- Points per scoring opportunity1.930th
- Points allowed per opportunity2.945th
- Three-and-out rate42%20th
- Three-and-outs forced32%64th
Roster
- Returning usage58%69th
- Returning EPA23588th
- Team talent composite55717th
- Recruiting class rank12410th
- Recruiting class points16110th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Near-equal efficiency edge: 0.009 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
0-2 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 24 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 69.2%
- Expected, given the spots
- 54.5%
- Over expected
- +14.7
- Fourth down vs peers
- +0
- Fourth down vs the model
- -29
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Hawai'i is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Hawai'i in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 9-4 | 5-3 | 69% | 7.1 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 42% | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 38% | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 23% | 2.9 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 6-7 | 3-5 | 46% | 6.3 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 5-4 | 4-4 | 56% | 4.1 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 10-5 | 5-4 | 67% | 8.2 | +1.8 |
| 2018 | 8-6 | 5-3 | 57% | 7.4 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 3-9 | 1-7 | 25% | 3.9 | -0.9 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-2 so far, projected to finish 6.4-5.7. Wins the Mountain West in 3.8%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
Win out and it is 5.8%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
down 3.4 points since preseason — lost 27-37 to Stanford against an expected margin of −3, so −18.5 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 5.8% where the average Mountain West team is 6.6%.
- The Mountain West takes 0.23 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.1% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.
Hawai'i’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk6at Arizona State0.3
- wk7vs New Mexico0.2
- wk12at Nevada0.2
- wk4at Wyoming0.1
- wk5vs San José State0.1
- wk8at Northern Illinois0.1
Who to root for
Games Hawai'i is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk8Middle Tennessee over Florida International0.1
- wk13Nevada over UNLV0.1
- wk3Purdue over UCLA0.1
- wk6New Mexico State over Florida International0.1
- wk7Boston College over Pittsburgh0.1
- wk3Wake Forest over Miami0.1
Mountain West
0-1 in league play, projected 4.4-3.65 of 10 by title oddsThe Mountain West sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 35% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk7New Mexico at Hawai'i9.4
- wk12Hawai'i at Nevada7.5
- wk5San José State at Hawai'i4.9
- wk4Hawai'i at Wyoming4.8
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mountain West race →
If not the playoff, then
Hawai'i is 0-2 and needs 6 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 2.3% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Arizona Bowl18%
- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl15%
- New Mexico Bowl10%
- Hawai'i Bowl7.8%
- Cure Bowl5.5%
- LA Bowl5.2%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 6 have sent Hawai'i a player since 2010 — 36 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Hawai'i's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.