Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NEV 1277
HAW 1459
Projected spread
NEV +9.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
HAW
75% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
25%
NEV (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (NEV Elo 1277, HAW Elo 1459) plus home-field advantage. That projects NEV +9.2 (25% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelHAW 75% · NEV 25%
Pick: HAW
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
HAW2025 season · national rank shownNEV
395.361st
Total yards / game
302.4126th5.770th
Yards / play
5.0Key matchups · Pro
- NEV pass offense (-0.02 PPA) vs. HAW pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge HAW.
- HAW rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. NEV rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge NEV.
- HAW pass offense (0.31 PPA) vs. NEV pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge HAW.
FAQ
Who will win Hawai'i vs. Nevada?
Gridpex's model favors Hawai'i with a 75% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Hawai'i vs. Nevada?
The model projects Hawai'i by 9.2.
What time is Hawai'i vs. Nevada and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Mackay Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Hawai'i at 75% to win, projecting Hawai'i by 9.2.