Hawai'i vs. UTEP Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Hawai'i gets at UTEP: 49th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 100th at closing out passing downs. Where UTEP gets at Hawai'i: 35th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 92nd at keeping everything in front of them. Hawai'i is also 60th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 110th.
How
HAWattacks
UTEP
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · 21% this season, 2 games
HAW31%#49 of 138UTEP57%#100 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · 24% this season, 2 games
HAW3.78#60 of 138UTEP4.63#110 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · 24% this season, 2 games
HAW19.5%#62 of 138UTEP11.7%#108 of 138
HowUTEPattacksHAW
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 22% this season, 1 game
UTEP0.87#35 of 138HAW1.30#92 of 138
The two teams
Hawai'i
Hawai'i throws it: Timmy Chang's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 4 seasons. The way in is 129th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 112th on first and second down.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Hawai'i has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets3.41#129 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down37%#112 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.04#111 of 138
UTEP
UTEP is in year 3 under Scotty Walden. The strengths are offensive, led by 35th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 138th at throwing it, and they are 138th on first and second down.
UTEP has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 8% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays0.87#35 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it-0.02#138 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down46%#138 of 138
- Offensesurviving second and twelve11%#138 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTEP Elo 1163, HAW Elo 1426 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTEP +23.7 (7% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
HAW126th126thUTEPUTEP132nd115thHAWThrough the air
HAW71st98thUTEPUTEP130th81stHAWOn the ground
HAW124th112thUTEPUTEP109th124thHAWStaying on the field
HAW65th129thUTEPUTEP132nd106thHAWTaking care of it
HAW68th88thUTEPUTEP68th118thHAW
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesHawai'i leads 18–13 · 19% have been one-possession games
| HAW | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.0 (#132) | CORE overall | -16.9 (#134) |
| -12 / +4 | offense / defense | -13 / +4 |
| 1.04 | points / drive | -0.64 |
| 2.23 | allowed / drive | 4.00 |
| 42% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| +15 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Hawai'i vs. UTEP?
Gridpex's model favors Hawai'i with a 93% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Hawai'i vs. UTEP?
The model projects Hawai'i by 23.7.
What time is Hawai'i vs. UTEP and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Sun Bowl.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →