Hawai'i vs. Wyoming Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Hawai'i gets at Wyoming: 62nd at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 103rd at generating havoc. Wyoming projects no clear way in against Hawai'i. Hawai'i is also 67th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 106th.
How
HAWattacks
WYO
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · 24% this season, 2 games
HAW19.5%#62 of 138WYO15.4%#103 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 25% this season, 2 games
HAW14.0%#67 of 138WYO18.2%#106 of 138
The two teams
Hawai'i
Hawai'i throws it: Timmy Chang's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 4 seasons. The way in is 129th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 112th on first and second down.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Hawai'i has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets3.41#129 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down37%#112 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.04#111 of 138
Wyoming
Wyoming is in year 3 under Jay Sawvel. The strengths are defensive, led by 34th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 134th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 130th at keeping a clean pocket.
Wyoming has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.16#34 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays0.98#134 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss17.9%#130 of 138
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points3.09#129 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WYO Elo 1300, HAW Elo 1426 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WYO +15.8 (17% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
HAW126th101stWYOWYO109th115thHAWThrough the air
HAW71st94thWYOWYO121st81stHAWOn the ground
HAW124th97thWYOWYO79th124thHAWStaying on the field
HAW65th92ndWYOWYO123rd106thHAWTaking care of it
HAW68th53rdWYOWYO133rd118thHAW
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWyoming leads 17–12 · 45% have been one-possession games
| HAW | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.0 (#132) | CORE overall | -12.9 (#123) |
| -12 / +4 | offense / defense | -10 / +3 |
| 1.04 | points / drive | 1.00 |
| 2.23 | allowed / drive | 3.50 |
| 42% | three-and-outs | 50% |
| +15 | pass over expected | -16 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Hawai'i vs. Wyoming?
Gridpex's model favors Hawai'i with a 83% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Hawai'i vs. Wyoming?
The model projects Hawai'i by 15.8.
What time is Hawai'i vs. Wyoming and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 26, 3:00 PM ET, at War Memorial Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →