San José State vs. Hawai'i Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where San José State gets at Hawai'i: 24th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 92nd at keeping everything in front of them. Where Hawai'i gets at San José State: 62nd at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 133rd at generating havoc. San José State is also 85th in the push up front, against a unit 129th.
How
SJSUattacks
HAW
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 47% this season, 2 games
SJSU1.45#24 of 138HAW1.30#92 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected · 2 games in
SJSU2.77#85 of 138HAW3.41#129 of 138
HowHAWattacksSJSU
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · 24% this season, 2 games
HAW19.5%#62 of 138SJSU11.6%#133 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 25% this season, 2 games
HAW14.0%#67 of 138SJSU12.7%#136 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · 24% this season, 2 games
HAW3.78#60 of 138SJSU3.73#115 of 138
The two teams
San José State
San José State runs it: Ken Niumatalolo's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 10 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 8th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 136th at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 133rd at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
San José State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays0.94#8 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.45#24 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line12.7%#136 of 138
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss11.6%#133 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down56%#126 of 138
Hawai'i
Hawai'i throws it: Timmy Chang's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 4 seasons. The way in is 129th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 112th on first and second down.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Hawai'i has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets3.41#129 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down37%#112 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.04#111 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HAW Elo 1426, SJSU Elo 1413 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HAW -33.7 (99% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
SJSU71st115thHAWHAW126th88thSJSUThrough the air
SJSU43rd81stHAWHAW71st113thSJSUOn the ground
SJSU104th124thHAWHAW124th87thSJSUStaying on the field
SJSU97th106thHAWHAW65th95thSJSUTaking care of it
SJSU68th118thHAWHAW68th53rdSJSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSan José State leads 22–21–1 · San José State has won 5 straight · 27% have been one-possession games
| SJSU | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.6 (#57) | CORE overall | -16.0 (#132) |
| -2 / -6 | offense / defense | -12 / +4 |
| 2.39 | points / drive | 1.04 |
| 2.44 | allowed / drive | 2.23 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 42% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win San José State vs. Hawai'i?
Gridpex's model favors Hawai'i with a 99% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for San José State vs. Hawai'i?
The model projects Hawai'i by 33.7.
What time is San José State vs. Hawai'i and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 3, 11:59 PM ET, at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →