Sacramento State vs. Hawai'i Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Sacramento State gets at Hawai'i: 59th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 109th at generating havoc. Hawai'i projects no clear way in against Sacramento State. Sacramento State is also 71st at running it, against a unit 108th.
How
SACattacks
HAW
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected · 2 games in
SAC16.9%#59 of 138HAW10.2%#109 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected · 2 games in
SAC+0.03#71 of 138HAW+0.28#108 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected · 2 games in
SAC3.93#52 of 138HAW3.82#86 of 138
The two teams
Sacramento State
Sacramento State is in year 1 under Alonzo Carter. The way in is 107th in the push up front.
Sacramento State has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 20% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensethe push the line gets1.64#107 of 138
Hawai'i
Hawai'i throws it: Timmy Chang's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 4 seasons. The way in is 129th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 112th on first and second down.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Hawai'i has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets3.41#129 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down37%#112 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.04#111 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HAW Elo 1426, SAC Elo 1466 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HAW -10.2 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
SAC98th115thHAWHAW126th41stSACThrough the air
SAC66th81stHAWHAW71st54thSACOn the ground
SAC97th124thHAWHAW124th41stSACStaying on the field
SAC101st106thHAWHAW65th23rdSACTaking care of it
SAC118th118thHAWHAW68th53rdSAC
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SAC | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.0 (#113) | CORE overall | -16.0 (#132) |
| -9 / +2 | offense / defense | -12 / +4 |
| 0.83 | points / drive | 1.04 |
| 1.50 | allowed / drive | 2.23 |
| 50% | three-and-outs | 42% |
| +18 | pass over expected | +15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Sacramento State vs. Hawai'i?
Gridpex's model favors Hawai'i with a 72% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Sacramento State vs. Hawai'i?
The model projects Hawai'i by 10.2.
What time is Sacramento State vs. Hawai'i and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 28, 11:00 PM ET, at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →