Hawai'i vs. Stanford: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HAWTeam statsSTAN
- Q4 1:12STANTevarua Tafiti 31 Yd Fumble Return (Emmet Kenney Kick)27–37
- Q4 1:41STANMicah Ford 2 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)27–30
- Q4 4:06HAWDeVon Rice 29 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Sean Olvera-Harle PAT failed)27–23
- Q4 9:39HAWTama Uiliata 11 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–23
- Q4 12:43HAWSitani Mikaele 5 Yd Run (Tama Uiliata Run for Two-Point Conversion)15–23
- Q3 9:51STANMicah Ford 2 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)7–23
- Q3 13:32STANTeam Safety7–16
- Q2 7:02STANAtticus Joseph 6 Yd pass from Davis Warren (Emmet Kenney Kick)7–14
- Q2 10:18HAWDeVon Rice 3 Yd Run (Sean Olvera-Harle Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:37STANMicah Ford 2 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Stanford walked in the underdog and walked out with the win. What actually happened.
Stanford wasn't supposed to win this one. They knock off Hawai'i, 37-27 at Stanford Stadium. Stanford was not the side anyone expected to be up 10 at the end of it. Micah Ford ran 25 times for 99 yards and three scores.
- PassMicah Alejado 31/51, 272 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDeVon Rice 11 CAR, 35 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKainoa Carvalho 5 REC, 72 YDS
- PassDavis Warren 22/34, 310 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMicah Ford 25 CAR, 99 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJonAnthony Hall 2 REC, 81 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. Stanford?
Hawai'i 27, Stanford 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked HAW, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HAW | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 322 | Total yards | 483 |
| 276 | Passing yards | 310 |
| 46 | Rushing yards | 173 |
| 19 | First downs | 21 |
| 8-19 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 31/52 | Comp/Att | 22/34 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-31 | Penalties | 8-59 |
| 29:06 | Possession | 30:54 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:12STANTevarua Tafiti 31 Yd Fumble Return (Emmet Kenney Kick)27–37
- Q4 1:41STANMicah Ford 2 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)27–30
- Q4 4:06HAWDeVon Rice 29 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Sean Olvera-Harle PAT failed)27–23
- Q4 9:39HAWTama Uiliata 11 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–23
- Q4 12:43HAWSitani Mikaele 5 Yd Run (Tama Uiliata Run for Two-Point Conversion)15–23
- Q3 9:51STANMicah Ford 2 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)7–23
- Q3 13:32STANTeam Safety7–16
- Q2 7:02STANAtticus Joseph 6 Yd pass from Davis Warren (Emmet Kenney Kick)7–14
- Q2 10:18HAWDeVon Rice 3 Yd Run (Sean Olvera-Harle Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:37STANMicah Ford 2 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (STAN Elo 1390, HAW Elo 1472 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects STAN +0.9 (49% to win) — 5.4 points clear of HAW's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| HAW | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.0 (#132) | CORE overall | -5.3 (#88) |
| -12 / +4 | offense / defense | -2 / +3 |
| 1.04 | points / drive | 1.54 |
| 2.23 | allowed / drive | 2.78 |
| 42% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| +15 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Stanford knocks off Hawai'i, 37-27
Stanford walked in the underdog and walked out with the win. What actually happened.
We had this one the other way
Before kickoff we made Hawai'i the pick by about 8. The model missed the side: it favored Hawai'i by ~8, but Stanford won by 10 as the underdog.
The big plays only went one way
Stanford produced 10 plays of 15+ yards to Hawai'i's 7: Davis Warren (involved in 9), Atticus Joseph (involved in 2) and Jonanthony Hall (involved in 2). Stanford sacked Hawai'i's quarterback 2 times: Gabe Kaminski (1.5 sacks) and Sam Mattingly (0.5 sacks). That's what carried Stanford.
Where it swung
Most of the movement came on three plays. Davis Warren's 57-yard throw to Jonanthony Hall on 3rd-and-9 at Q1 10:21. Then Micah Alejado's 11-yard throw to Tama Uiliata for a touchdown on 2nd-and-11 at Q4 09:39. Later, Micah Alejado's 29-yard throw to Devon Rice for a touchdown on 2nd-and-13 at Q4 04:06.
Who carried it
Davis Warren threw for 310 yards on 34 attempts with one touchdown and ran five times for 16 yards — two third-down conversions and a hand in nine plays of 15 yards or more. Micah Ford ran 25 times for 99 yards and three scores — two of them from inside the 20 and three third-down conversions. Atticus Joseph caught four passes for 52 yards, one of them for a touchdown. For Hawai'i, Micah Alejado threw for 272 yards on 51 attempts with two touchdowns and lost 7 yards on five carries — that score from inside the 20, four third-down conversions and a hand in six plays of 15 yards or more. Tama Uiliata caught eight passes for 62 yards, one of them for a touchdown — that score from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. Devon Rice ran 11 times for 35 yards and one score and caught four passes for 25 yards, one of them for a touchdown, including that score from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. Gabe Kaminski was the disruptive one for Stanford: 1.5 sacks, 1.5 TFLs, 1 PBU, 3.5 tackles.
The way it played out
Stanford struck first through Micah Ford, led 14-7 at the half and the final points came on a late score by Stanford.
The disruptive ones
Three names to keep: Gabe Kaminski (1.5 sacks, 1.5 TFLs, 1 PBU, 3.5 tackles) for Stanford, Lonnie McAllister III (1 forced fumble, 4 tackles) for Stanford and Ka'eo Akana (1 blocked kick, 1.5 tackles) for Hawai'i. 0 of Stanford's 3 sacks came from the defensive line — a change from the 44% it had averaged over the previous 9 seasons.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
A program win for Stanford; a gut-check loss Hawai'i won't soon forget. Micah Alejado was responsible for 12 of Hawai'i's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →