Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (STAN Elo 1335, HAW Elo 1459) plus home-field advantage. That projects STAN +7.3 (30% to win) — 10.8 points of value on HAW versus the market line of -3.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: HAW · 31 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- STAN rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. HAW rush defense (0.10 allowed) — edge HAW.
- STAN pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. HAW pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge HAW.
- HAW pass offense (0.31 PPA) vs. STAN pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge STAN.
FAQ
Who will win Hawai'i vs. Stanford?
Gridpex's model favors Hawai'i with a 70% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Hawai'i vs. Stanford?
The model projects Hawai'i by 7.3.
What time is Hawai'i vs. Stanford and what channel is it on?
Sat, Aug 29, 11:00 PM on ACC Network, at Stanford Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Hawai'i at 70% to win, projecting Hawai'i by 7.3. That's 31 points off the market line — there may be value. Where's the disagreement?