North Dakota State vs. Hawai'i Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Keys to this game
the three widest mismatches on the field
- 1
HAW in scoring range
points per trip inside the 40 — the difference between drives and points
HAW3.56pts/opportunity1.75
NDSU - 2
HAW behind schedule
success rate on passing downs — whether a drive survives 2nd and 12
HAW30%success rate17%NDSU - 3
When NDSU throws
EPA per dropback against the secondary that has to cover it
NDSU+0.31EPA/play+0.17HAW
Each line is one unit's season average against the unit it will face. The bar shows how far apart they are relative to the rest of the country — it is a description of the matchup, not a prediction.
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where North Dakota State gets at Hawai'i: 55th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 130th at stuffing runs at the line. Hawai'i projects no clear way in against North Dakota State. North Dakota State is also 60th at running it, against a unit 109th.
HowNDSUattacksHAW
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 26% this season, 2 games
NDSU15.2%#55 of 138HAW12.6%#130 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · 26% this season, 2 games
NDSU+0.17#60 of 138HAW+0.24#109 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · 26% this season, 2 games
NDSU12.1%#41 of 138HAW14.6%#84 of 138
The two teams
North Dakota State
North Dakota State is in year 1 under Tim Polasek. The strengths are defensive, led by 10th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 106th at stuffing runs at the line.
North Dakota State has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays0.99#10 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line14.6%#106 of 138
Hawai'i
Hawai'i throws it: Timmy Chang's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 4 seasons. The way in is 130th at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 126th at running it.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Hawai'i has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 34% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line12.6%#130 of 138
- Offenserunning it-0.05#126 of 138
- Defenserunning it+0.24#109 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HAW Elo 1432, NDSU Elo 1567 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HAW -13.6 (81% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NDSU89th119thHAWHAW124th30thNDSUThrough the air
NDSU86th96thHAWHAW42nd15thNDSUOn the ground
NDSU77th116thHAWHAW135th56thNDSUStaying on the field
NDSU73rd108thHAWHAW71st54thNDSUTaking care of it
NDSU47th46thHAWHAW74th3rdNDSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NDSU | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.5 (#48) | CORE overall | -16.0 (#123) |
| +0 / -5 | offense / defense | -10 / +6 |
| 2.71 | points / drive | 1.72 |
| 1.47 | allowed / drive | 1.91 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +17 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win North Dakota State vs. Hawai'i?
Gridpex's model favors Hawai'i with a 81% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for North Dakota State vs. Hawai'i?
The model projects Hawai'i by 13.6.
What time is North Dakota State vs. Hawai'i and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 14, 11:59 PM ET, at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →