UNLV outscores Idaho State in a 69-point shootout, 38-31
Points everywhere. The small margins that tilted it UNLV's way.
If you like punts, this was not your night. UNLV outscores Idaho State, 38-31 at Allegiant Stadium. The two sides combined for 69 points, and UNLV had just a little more.
How we got here
Idaho State struck first, Idaho State led 17-14 at the half and the final points came on a late score by UNLV.
What actually mattered
UNLV won the turnover battle, 1 giveaways to Idaho State's 4 and UNLV's defense held Idaho State to 26% below its usual output. That's what carried UNLV.
Cumulative margin after each quarter (lead change). Above the line = IS ahead, below = UNLV ahead.
How the two sides actually played on the night.
The difference-makers
UNLV leaned on Anthony Colandrea (195 passing yards, 1 TD), Jai'Den Thomas (147 rushing yards, 3 TD) and Jaden Bradley (131 receiving yards). Ian Duarte went well above his season norm — 105 receiving yards, 142% over his average.
Each bar is one regular-season game (official box). Ian's 105 receiving yds in the title game was a season high — the 100th percentile of his own year.
Key players' yardage vs their per-game season norm.
Against the line
The closing line had UNLV -30.5. Idaho State covered. The total was 67.2; the teams combined for 69, an over.
Where it leaves them
UNLV simply outscored Idaho State — entertaining, and a little alarming for both staffs.
Discussion
Weigh in on the analysis — the best takes rise to the top.
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