Idaho State vs. UNLV: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
IDAHTeam statsUNLV
- Q4 8:51UNLVAlex Orji 11 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)31–38
- Q4 11:26UNLVDaejon Reynolds 9 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)31–31
- Q4 13:40IDAHDason Brooks 2 Yd Run (Trajan Sinatra Kick)31–24
- Q3 4:15IDAHIan Duarte 64 Yd pass from Jordan Cooke (Trajan Sinatra Kick)24–24
- Q3 6:00UNLVRamon Villela 26 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 11:57UNLVJai'Den Thomas 3 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)17–21
- Q2 2:06IDAHDason Brooks 27 Yd Run (Trajan Sinatra Kick)17–14
- Q2 7:12UNLVJai'Den Thomas 70 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)10–14
- Q2 10:34UNLVJai'Den Thomas 39 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)10–7
- Q1 5:49IDAHJordan Cooke 15 Yd pass from Michael Shulikov (Trajan Sinatra Kick)10–0
- Q1 11:14IDAHTrajan Sinatra 26 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
Points everywhere. The small margins that tilted it UNLV's way.
If you like punts, this was not your night. UNLV outscores Idaho State, 38-31 at Allegiant Stadium. The two sides combined for 69 points, and UNLV had just a little more.
- PassJordan Cooke 30/50, 380 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushDason Brooks 18 CAR, 132 YDS, 2 TD
- RecIan Duarte 6 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAnthony Colandrea 15/21, 195 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJai'Den Thomas 10 CAR, 147 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJaden Bradley 6 REC, 131 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Idaho State vs. UNLV?
Idaho State 31, UNLV 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNLV) was correct.
| IDAH | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 555 | Total yards | 532 |
| 395 | Passing yards | 232 |
| 160 | Rushing yards | 300 |
| 30 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 31/52 | Comp/Att | 18/24 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 9.7 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 6.8 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-80 | Penalties | 8-90 |
| 28:48 | Possession | 31:12 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:51UNLVAlex Orji 11 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)31–38
- Q4 11:26UNLVDaejon Reynolds 9 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)31–31
- Q4 13:40IDAHDason Brooks 2 Yd Run (Trajan Sinatra Kick)31–24
- Q3 4:15IDAHIan Duarte 64 Yd pass from Jordan Cooke (Trajan Sinatra Kick)24–24
- Q3 6:00UNLVRamon Villela 26 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 11:57UNLVJai'Den Thomas 3 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)17–21
- Q2 2:06IDAHDason Brooks 27 Yd Run (Trajan Sinatra Kick)17–14
- Q2 7:12UNLVJai'Den Thomas 70 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)10–14
- Q2 10:34UNLVJai'Den Thomas 39 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)10–7
- Q1 5:49IDAHJordan Cooke 15 Yd pass from Michael Shulikov (Trajan Sinatra Kick)10–0
- Q1 11:14IDAHTrajan Sinatra 26 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtUNLV outscores Idaho State in a 69-point shootout, 38-31
Points everywhere. The small margins that tilted it UNLV's way.
How we got here
Idaho State struck first, Idaho State led 17-14 at the half and the final points came on a late score by UNLV.
What actually mattered
UNLV won the turnover battle, 1 giveaways to Idaho State's 4 and UNLV's defense held Idaho State to 26% below its usual output. That's what carried UNLV.
Cumulative margin after each quarter (lead change). Above the line = IS ahead, below = UNLV ahead.
The difference-makers
UNLV leaned on Anthony Colandrea (195 passing yards, 1 TD), Jai'Den Thomas (147 rushing yards, 3 TD) and Jaden Bradley (131 receiving yards). Ian Duarte went well above his season norm — 105 receiving yards, 142% over his average.
Each bar is one regular-season game (official box). Ian's 105 receiving yds in the title game was a season high — the 100th percentile of his own year.
Key players' yardage vs their per-game season norm.
Against the line
The closing line had UNLV -30.5. Idaho State covered. The total was 67.2; the teams combined for 69, an over.
Where it leaves them
UNLV simply outscored Idaho State — entertaining, and a little alarming for both staffs.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →