UNLV
Mountain West
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDAH | 10 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| UNLV | 0 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 38 |
Points everywhere. The small margins that tilted it UNLV's way.
If you like punts, this was not your night. UNLV outscores Idaho State, 38-31 at Allegiant Stadium. The two sides combined for 69 points, and UNLV had just a little more.
Idaho State struck first, Idaho State led 17-14 at the half and the final points came on a late score by UNLV.
UNLV won the turnover battle, 1 giveaways to Idaho State's 4 and UNLV's defense held Idaho State to 26% below its usual output. That's what carried UNLV.
Cumulative margin after each quarter (lead change). Above the line = IS ahead, below = UNLV ahead.
UNLV leaned on Anthony Colandrea (195 passing yards, 1 TD), Jai'Den Thomas (147 rushing yards, 3 TD) and Jaden Bradley (131 receiving yards). Ian Duarte went well above his season norm — 105 receiving yards, 142% over his average.
Each bar is one regular-season game (official box). Ian's 105 receiving yds in the title game was a season high — the 100th percentile of his own year.
The closing line had UNLV -30.5. Idaho State covered. The total was 67.2; the teams combined for 69, an over.
UNLV simply outscored Idaho State — entertaining, and a little alarming for both staffs.
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Idaho State 31, UNLV 38.
Yes — the model's pick (UNLV) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNLV pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jai'Den Thomas 70 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)
Jackson Sharman pass intercepted
Ian Duarte 64 Yd pass from Jordan Cooke (Trajan Sinatra Kick)
Key players' yardage vs their per-game season norm.
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