Houston Christian vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HOUSTeam statsRICE
- Q4 10:16RICEGael Ochoa 29 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)3–31
- Q4 13:19RICEQuinton Jackson 12 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)3–24
- Q2 2:31RICEEnock Gota 26 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 9:32RICEQuinton Jackson 7 Yd pass from Jacurri Brown (Enock Gota Kick)3–14
- Q1 1:02RICED'Andre Hardeman Jr. 2 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:24HOUSLukasz Smolen 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- HOUS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and RICE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 4.8
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
This one was over early. Rice rolls past Houston Christian, 31-3 at Rice Stadium. Houston Christian scored first, and Rice answered by taking the game over. Quinton Jackson ran 10 times for 61 yards and two scores and caught one pass for 6 yards.
- PassCutter Stewart 6/17, 63 YDS, 1 INT
- RushChamp Dozier 8 CAR, 86 YDS
- RecJamaal Hall II 2 REC, 27 YDS
- PassJacurri Brown 3/6, 18 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTyvonn Byars 16 CAR, 104 YDS
- RecQuinton Jackson 2 REC, 13 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsRICE up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston Christian vs. Rice?
Houston Christian 3, Rice 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (RICE) was correct.
| HOUS | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 246 | Total yards | 493 |
| 98 | Passing yards | 35 |
| 148 | Rushing yards | 458 |
| 13 | First downs | 27 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 11-17 |
| 0-4 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 8/23 | Comp/Att | 5/11 |
| 4.3 | Yards per pass | 3.2 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 6.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 20:28 | Possession | 39:32 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:22 HOUS go for it on 4th & 11 at RICE 33. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.64 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:16RICEGael Ochoa 29 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)3–31
- Q4 13:19RICEQuinton Jackson 12 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)3–24
- Q2 2:31RICEEnock Gota 26 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 9:32RICEQuinton Jackson 7 Yd pass from Jacurri Brown (Enock Gota Kick)3–14
- Q1 1:02RICED'Andre Hardeman Jr. 2 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:24HOUSLukasz Smolen 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects RICE -27.1 (94% to win) — 4.6 points clear of RICE's market line of -22.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Rice rolls past Houston Christian, 31-3
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
One team finished its drives
Rice scored on 50% of its drives to Houston Christian's 11%, chiefly Quinton Jackson (12 pts), DAndre Hardeman Jr. (6 pts) and Gael Ochoa (6 pts). Rice converted 11 of 17 third downs (65%) to Houston Christian's 31%, chiefly DAndre Hardeman Jr. (2/2), Tyvonn Byars (5/6) and Jacurri Brown (2/3). Stacked together, that is what turned a close game into this one.
Who carried it
Quinton Jackson ran 10 times for 61 yards and two scores and caught one pass for 6 yards, including two of them from inside the 20. DAndre Hardeman Jr. ran 11 times for 77 yards and one score — that score from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. Tyvonn Byars ran 16 times for 104 yards, with five third-down conversions. For Houston Christian, Cutter Stewart threw for 61 yards on 17 attempts and ran seven times for 14 yards, with a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Champ Dozier ran eight times for 86 yards. Jaylen Middleton ran 10 times for 29 yards. Chibby Nwajuaku was the disruptive one for Rice: 2 sacks, 2 TFLs, 3.5 tackles.
What Houston Christian has to fix
The problems had names: Cutter Stewart (1 interception).
Who got home
Three names to keep, all for Rice: Chibby Nwajuaku (2 sacks, 2 TFLs, 3.5 tackles), Jerrick Harper (1 INT) and Tyler Lavallier (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 tackle).
The way it played out
Houston Christian struck first through Lukasz Smolen, Rice led 17-3 at the half and got the final points on a late touchdown by Gael Ochoa.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Business handled for Rice. The question now is whether the opponent told us anything.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →