Tennessee Tech vs. Furman: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Tennessee Tech

0010

Furman

▸0045

Final

Paladin Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
TENN	3	7	0	0	10
FURM	7	14	3	21	45

TENNTeam statsFURM

291Total yards384

212Pass190

79Rush194

18First downs18

7-173rd down9-16

6Turnovers2

31:14Possession28:46

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:41FURMJayquan Smith 6 Yd Run (Axel Lepvreau Kick)10–45
• Q4 5:38FURMDan Scianna 67 Yd Interception Return (Ian Williams Kick)10–38
• Q4 7:34FURMDominic Roberto 9 Yd Run (Axel Lepvreau Kick)10–31
• Q3 3:55FURMIan Williams 32 Yd Field Goal 10–24
• Q2 0:46TENNWillie Miller 26 Yd pass from Ethan Roberts (Hayden Olsen Kick)10–21
• Q2 4:32FURMDominic Roberto 9 Yd Run (Axel Lepvreau Kick)3–21
• Q2 8:37FURMKyndel Dean 6 Yd Run (Ian Williams Kick)3–14
• Q1 6:50TENNHayden Olsen 38 Yd Field Goal 3–7
• Q1 12:38FURMTravis Blackshear 43 Yd Interception Return (Axel Lepvreau Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

FURM −27

Against the number

FURM covered

line FURM −27

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

FURM 100%50%TENN 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

FURM (top)TENN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FURM 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

FURM −27

Closing total

49.5

Model line

—

Actual result

TENN 10 – 45 FURM

Leaders

Tennessee Tech

• PassEthan Roberts 25/38, 204 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
• RushJayvian Allen 6 CAR, 27 YDS
• RecBradley Clark 6 REC, 73 YDS

Furman

• PassTyler Huff 15/27, 172 YDS, 1 INT
• RushDominic Roberto 18 CAR, 59 YDS, 2 TD
• RecKyndel Dean 5 REC, 56 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.2sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

143

Points / snap

0.38

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

FURM up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,010 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

94%

FURM went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WVanderbilt vs Hawai'i35-28WTulane vs South Alabama37-17WWilliam & Mary vs Wofford23-6WOld Dominion vs Louisiana38-31WPennsylvania vs Colgate20-6

Fourth downs

15 calls

FURM gave up 2.3 points to the model on fourth down.TENN 7/7 · FURM 3/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Tennessee Tech vs. Furman?

Tennessee Tech 10, Furman 45.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (FURM) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

TENN

FURM

39%

Success rate

47%

-0.16

EPA / pass

0.26

-0.30

EPA / rush

0.23

36%

Early-down success

43%

43%

Pass success

50%

32%

Rush success

45%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

9%

29%

Stuffed rush rate

18%

59%

Pass rate

44%

6.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.8

TENN

6.4 yards to go on 3rd down

75 scrimmage snaps

FURM

6.8 yards to go on 3rd down

68 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

TENN		FURM
291	Total yards	384
212	Passing yards	190
79	Rushing yards	194
18	First downs	18
7-17	3rd down	9-16
1-3	4th down	1-2
26/42	Comp/Att	16/29
5.0	Yards per pass	6.6
2.5	Yards per rush	4.9
6	Turnovers	2
6-35	Penalties	8-53
31:14	Possession	28:46

Fourth downs

15 calls

TENN

7/7 with the model

nothing given up

FURM

3/6 with the model

−2.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 9:25 FURM punt on 4th & 1 at FURM 18. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.89 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

TENN 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →FURM 5/13 scoring drives

TENNTD5 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q1

TENNFG13 pl, 54 yds· own 25Q1

FURMPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 21Q1

TENNFUM9 pl, 39 yds· own 14Q1

FURMINT8 pl, 31 yds· own 47Q2

TENNINT2 pl, 4 yds· own 14Q2

FURMTD5 pl, 17 yds· opp 17Q2

TENNPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2

FURMTD5 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q2

TENNTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

FURMMISS7 pl, 25 yds· own 35Q2

FURMPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 9Q3

TENNPUNT8 pl, 21 yds· own 22Q3

FURMPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 9Q3

TENNPUNT4 pl, 12 yds· own 41Q3

FURMPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 20Q3

FURMFG4 pl, -2 yds· opp 12Q3

TENNDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q3

FURMFUM2 pl, 17 yds· opp 34Q3

TENNPUNT5 pl, 28 yds· own 17Q3

FURMTD14 pl, 94 yds· own 6Q4

TENNTD6 pl, 32 yds· own 30Q4

TENNINT2 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q4

FURMTD5 pl, 41 yds· opp 41Q4

TENNPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4

FURMEND4 pl, 43 yds· own 28Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:41FURMJayquan Smith 6 Yd Run (Axel Lepvreau Kick)10–45
• Q4 5:38FURMDan Scianna 67 Yd Interception Return (Ian Williams Kick)10–38
• Q4 7:34FURMDominic Roberto 9 Yd Run (Axel Lepvreau Kick)10–31
• Q3 3:55FURMIan Williams 32 Yd Field Goal 10–24
• Q2 0:46TENNWillie Miller 26 Yd pass from Ethan Roberts (Hayden Olsen Kick)10–21
• Q2 4:32FURMDominic Roberto 9 Yd Run (Axel Lepvreau Kick)3–21
• Q2 8:37FURMKyndel Dean 6 Yd Run (Ian Williams Kick)3–14
• Q1 6:50TENNHayden Olsen 38 Yd Field Goal 3–7
• Q1 12:38FURMTravis Blackshear 43 Yd Interception Return (Axel Lepvreau Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →