San José State vs. Eastern Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SJSUTeam statsEMU
- Q4 1:37SJSUTrajan Sinatra 49 Yd Field Goal 27–21
- Q4 11:19SJSUCooper Hoch 40 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)24–21
- Q3 0:53EMUBryce Llewellyn 1 Yd Fumble Recovery (Rudy Kessinger Kick)17–21
- Q3 6:08SJSUCooper Hoch 10 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)17–14
- Q3 11:52EMUAmareon Blue 50 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)10–14
- Q2 0:00SJSUTrajan Sinatra 45 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 1:19SJSUJase Nix 27 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)7–7
- Q2 9:19EMUHarold Mack 5 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SJSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and EMU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 6.6
San José State walked in the underdog and walked out with the win. What actually happened.
The favorite had other plans — Eastern Michigan just didn't get the memo. San José State (0-1) knocks off Eastern Michigan (1-0), 27-21 at Rynearson Stadium. San José State won the closing stretch, which was all there was in it. Luke Weaver threw for 316 yards on 39 attempts with three touchdowns and ran 10 times for 10 yards.
- PassLuke Weaver 23/39, 316 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJabari Bates 20 CAR, 119 YDS
- RecCooper Hoch 5 REC, 115 YDS, 2 TD
- PassNoah Kim 24/43, 174 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAmareon Blue 11 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHarold Mack 7 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsEMU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:48EMU +69%
#39 D.Hull punt 45 yards to the SJSU22 #10 A.Ivey return 12 yards to the SJSU34 (#13 J.Marshall; #42 J.Kautz)
- Q4 0:58SJSU +55%
Kneel down by #3 L.Weaver at EMU38 for loss of 1 yard
- Q4 1:33EMU +43%
Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short right to #24 J.Mattord caught at EMU23, for 3 yards to the EMU28 (#32 C.Womack), out of bounds
- Q4 1:55SJSU +39%
PENALTY SJSU False Start (#76 M.Serna) 5 yards from EMU33 to EMU38. NO PLAY
- Q4 3:19SJSU +30%
PENALTY SJSU Delay Of Game (#3 L.Weaver) 5 yards from EMU47 to SJSU48. NO PLAY
- Q4 3:05EMU +26%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short right to #15 A.Blue caught at EMU20, for 4 yards to the EMU20 (#19 C.Woolwine; #32 C.Womack)
FAQ
What was the final score of San José State vs. Eastern Michigan?
San José State 27, Eastern Michigan 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked EMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SJSU | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 453 | Total yards | 281 |
| 316 | Passing yards | 174 |
| 137 | Rushing yards | 107 |
| 19 | First downs | 13 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 3-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 23/41 | Comp/Att | 24/43 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 4.0 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 13-100 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 29:52 | Possession | 30:08 |
Costliest call
Q1 5:00 EMU punt on 4th & 6 at SJSU 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.68 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:37SJSUTrajan Sinatra 49 Yd Field Goal 27–21
- Q4 11:19SJSUCooper Hoch 40 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)24–21
- Q3 0:53EMUBryce Llewellyn 1 Yd Fumble Recovery (Rudy Kessinger Kick)17–21
- Q3 6:08SJSUCooper Hoch 10 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)17–14
- Q3 11:52EMUAmareon Blue 50 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)10–14
- Q2 0:00SJSUTrajan Sinatra 45 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 1:19SJSUJase Nix 27 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)7–7
- Q2 9:19EMUHarold Mack 5 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (EMU Elo 1360, SJSU Elo 1406 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects EMU -25.9 (97% to win) — 24.4 points clear of EMU's market line of -1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#18 of 21 in 2026 by biggest miss · #19 of 21 in 2026 by longest odds.
The 2026 upset archive →| SJSU | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.8 (#67) | CORE overall | -14.8 (#120) |
| -4 / -4 | offense / defense | -11 / +4 |
| 2.39 | points / drive | 1.17 |
| 2.44 | allowed / drive | 2.23 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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18 of San José State's 27 points came from Luke Weaver
San José State walked in the underdog and walked out with the win. What actually happened.
We had this one the other way
Before kickoff we made Eastern Michigan the pick by about 18. The model missed the side: it favored Eastern Michigan by ~18, but San José State won by 6 as the underdog.
The big plays only went one way
San José State produced 7 plays of 15+ yards to Eastern Michigan's 2, chiefly Luke Weaver (involved in 7), Cooper Hoch (involved in 2) and Jase Nix (involved in 1). San José State scored on 38% of its drives to Eastern Michigan's 14%, chiefly Luke Weaver (18 pts), Cooper Hoch (12 pts) and Jase Nix (6 pts). That's what carried San José State.
Three plays
Strip it back and a few snaps did the work. Luke Weaver's 51-yard throw to Cooper Hoch on 2nd-and-8 at Q2 01:35. Then Amareon Blue's 50-yard run for a touchdown on 4th-and-1 at Q3 11:52. Later, Luke Weaver's 40-yard throw to Cooper Hoch for a touchdown on 2nd-and-6 at Q4 11:19.
The names on it
Luke Weaver threw for 316 yards on 39 attempts with three touchdowns and ran 10 times for 10 yards — that score from inside the 20, four third-down conversions and a hand in seven plays of 15 yards or more. Cooper Hoch caught five passes for 115 yards, two of them for touchdowns, with that score from inside the 20. Jase Nix caught two passes for 39 yards, one of them for a touchdown. For Eastern Michigan, Amareon Blue ran 11 times for 81 yards and one score and caught three passes for 12 yards — two third-down conversions. Harold Mack caught seven passes for 72 yards, one of them for a touchdown, including that score from inside the 20. Noah Kim threw for 174 yards on 43 attempts with one touchdown and ran three times for 10 yards — that score from inside the 20. Dylan Lee was the disruptive one for San José State: 1 TFL, 1 INT, 2 PBUs, 6 tackles.
The order of events
Eastern Michigan struck first through Noah Kim, San José State led 10-7 at the half and the final points came on a late field goal by Trajan Sinatra.
Cumulative margin after each quarter (lead change). Above the line = SJS ahead, below = EM ahead.
The disruptive ones
Three names to keep: Dylan Lee (1 TFL, 1 INT, 2 PBUs, 6 tackles) for San José State, Caleb Dobbs (1 INT, 3 PBUs, 1.5 tackles) for Eastern Michigan and Ronn Hardin (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 tackles) for Eastern Michigan.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
A program win for San José State; a gut-check loss Eastern Michigan won't soon forget. Amareon Blue was responsible for 6 of Eastern Michigan's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →