Boston College vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BCTeam statsCIN
- Q4 1:02BCJohnathan Montague Jr. 23 Yd pass from Mason McKenzie (Luca Lombardo Kick)15–34
- Q4 1:58CINJC French IV 1 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)8–34
- Q4 5:00CINStephen Rusnak 44 Yd Field Goal 8–27
- Q3 2:01BCEvan Dickens 4 Yd Run (Mason McKenzie Run for Two-Point Conversion)8–24
- Q3 5:24CINJC French IV 4 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–24
- Q3 10:48CINJC French IV 4 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–17
- Q2 7:48CINJV Gibson 4 Yd pass from Malachi Henry (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–10
- Q1 8:27CINStephen Rusnak 54 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CIN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 6.0
What actually decided Cincinnati's win over Boston College — beyond the final score.
Cincinnati tops Boston College, 34-15 at Nippert Stadium. Cincinnati was the steadier side of a 19-point win. JC French threw for 77 yards on 14 attempts with one touchdown and ran 10 times for 52 yards and three scores.
- PassMason McKenzie 18/35, 223 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMason McKenzie 20 CAR, 78 YDS
- RecJavarius Green 6 REC, 74 YDS
- PassJC French IV 10/14, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- RushGi'Bran Payne 14 CAR, 108 YDS
- RecJV Gibson 4 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCIN up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:48CIN +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV pass complete short middle to #11 J.Gibson caught at BCE00, for 4 yards to the BCE00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 10:48CIN +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.French IV rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BCE00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 8:27CIN +5%
#99 S.Rusnak field goal attempt from 54 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Boston College vs. Cincinnati?
Boston College 15, Cincinnati 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CIN) was correct.
| BC | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 388 | Total yards | 339 |
| 223 | Passing yards | 85 |
| 165 | Rushing yards | 254 |
| 24 | First downs | 17 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 18/35 | Comp/Att | 11/15 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-37 | Penalties | 7-69 |
| 31:19 | Possession | 28:41 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:08 CIN punt on 4th & 2 at CIN 13. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:02BCJohnathan Montague Jr. 23 Yd pass from Mason McKenzie (Luca Lombardo Kick)15–34
- Q4 1:58CINJC French IV 1 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)8–34
- Q4 5:00CINStephen Rusnak 44 Yd Field Goal 8–27
- Q3 2:01BCEvan Dickens 4 Yd Run (Mason McKenzie Run for Two-Point Conversion)8–24
- Q3 5:24CINJC French IV 4 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–24
- Q3 10:48CINJC French IV 4 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–17
- Q2 7:48CINJV Gibson 4 Yd pass from Malachi Henry (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–10
- Q1 8:27CINStephen Rusnak 54 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CIN Elo 1480, BC Elo 1406 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CIN -10.9 (75% to win) — 3.9 points clear of CIN's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 4–4 · Cincinnati has won 2 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| BC | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.7 (#83) | CORE overall | +2.5 (#62) |
| -4 / -1 | offense / defense | +3 / +0 |
| 1.86 | points / drive | 3.40 |
| 2.62 | allowed / drive | 1.27 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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JC French was responsible for 24 of Cincinnati's 34 points
What actually decided Cincinnati's win over Boston College — beyond the final score.
The turnover battle was the game
Cincinnati won the turnover battle 0-3, chiefly MJ Cannon (1 INT, 1 forced fumble, 2 PBUs, 2 tackles) and Kenny Worthy (1 INT, 1 PBU, 1 tackle). Cincinnati scored on 50% of its drives to Boston College's 18%, chiefly JC French (24 pts), JaVonnie Gibson (6 pts) and Stephen Rusnak (6 pts). That's what carried Cincinnati.
Who carried it
JC French threw for 77 yards on 14 attempts with one touchdown and ran 10 times for 52 yards and three scores, including four of them from inside the 20, two third-down conversions and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. JaVonnie Gibson caught four passes for 54 yards, one of them for a touchdown, including that score from inside the 20. Gi'Bran Payne ran 14 times for 108 yards. For Boston College, Mason McKenzie threw for 223 yards on 35 attempts with one touchdown and ran 20 times for 78 yards — four third-down conversions and a hand in eight plays of 15 yards or more. John Montague caught two passes for 55 yards, one of them for a touchdown. Javarius Green caught six passes for 74 yards, with a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. MJ Cannon was the disruptive one for Cincinnati: 1 INT, 1 forced fumble, 2 PBUs, 2 tackles.
Where it swung
The game turned on a handful of snaps. Mason McKenzie's 20-yard throw to Javarius Green on 3rd-and-10 at Q2 02:00. Then Mason McKenzie's 1-yard attempt to Brady Clough that came up short on 1st-and-10 at Q3 08:34. Later, Mason McKenzie's dropback that came up short on 4th-and-5 at Q4 09:01.
The way it played out
Cincinnati struck first through Stephen Rusnak, led 10-0 at the half and Boston College got the final points on a late touchdown by Mason McKenzie.
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
A solid, earned win for Cincinnati; Boston College is left to clean up the details that cost it. Mason McKenzie was responsible for 6 of Boston College's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →