Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (UNLV Elo 1622, MEM Elo 1540) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNLV -2.1 (56% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: UNLV · 5 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- UNLV rush offense (0.26 PPA) vs. MEM rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge UNLV.
- MEM rush offense (0.30 PPA) vs. UNLV rush defense (0.23 allowed) — edge MEM.
- MEM pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. UNLV pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge UNLV.
FAQ
Who will win Memphis vs. UNLV?
Gridpex's model favors UNLV with a 56% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Memphis vs. UNLV?
The model projects UNLV by 2.1.
What time is Memphis vs. UNLV and what channel is it on?
Sun, Aug 30, 2:00 AM on FOX, at Allegiant Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this UNLV at 56% to win, projecting UNLV by 2.1. That's 5 points off the market line — there may be value. Where's the disagreement?