Fordham vs. North Dakota State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FORDTeam statsNDSU
- Q3 4:28NDSUMekhi Collins 12 Yd pass from Nathan Hayes (Drew Klein Kick)0–38
- Q3 10:51NDSUDJ Scott 7 Yd Run (Drew Klein Kick)0–31
- Q3 13:56NDSUMarion Moore 37 Yd Interception Return (Drew Klein Kick)0–24
- Q2 0:55NDSUChris Kiel 8 Yd pass from Nathan Hayes (Drew Klein Kick)0–17
- Q2 14:56NDSUDJ Scott 3 Yd Run (Drew Klein Kick)0–10
- Q1 7:01NDSUDrew Klein 39 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
North Dakota State was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
Fordham never had a foothold. North Dakota State (1-0) runs away from Fordham, 38-0 at Fargodome. North Dakota State led from start to finish and never let Fordham within striking distance. DJ Scott ran 11 times for 60 yards and two scores and caught two passes for 16 yards.
- PassGunnar Smith 12/22, 116 YDS, 3 INT
- RushYohan-Li Louis 9 CAR, 23 YDS
- RecJohn Morris 3 REC, 37 YDS
- PassNathan Hayes 18/22, 210 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDJ Scott 11 CAR, 60 YDS, 2 TD
- RecChris Kiel 4 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNDSU up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Fordham vs. North Dakota State?
Fordham 0, North Dakota State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NDSU) was correct.
| FORD | NDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 135 | Total yards | 373 |
| 116 | Passing yards | 245 |
| 19 | Rushing yards | 128 |
| 9 | First downs | 22 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 12/22 | Comp/Att | 21/26 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 0.7 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-42 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 26:33 | Possession | 33:27 |
Costliest call
Q3 1:54 NDSU punt on 4th & 2 at NDSU 35. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.24 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 4:28NDSUMekhi Collins 12 Yd pass from Nathan Hayes (Drew Klein Kick)0–38
- Q3 10:51NDSUDJ Scott 7 Yd Run (Drew Klein Kick)0–31
- Q3 13:56NDSUMarion Moore 37 Yd Interception Return (Drew Klein Kick)0–24
- Q2 0:55NDSUChris Kiel 8 Yd pass from Nathan Hayes (Drew Klein Kick)0–17
- Q2 14:56NDSUDJ Scott 3 Yd Run (Drew Klein Kick)0–10
- Q1 7:01NDSUDrew Klein 39 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects NDSU -23.4 (92% to win) — 18.1 points clear of FORD's market line of -41.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Fordham never reached the end zone against North Dakota State
North Dakota State was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
The turnover battle was the game
North Dakota State won the turnover battle 0-4, led by Jackson Williams (1 INT, 1.5 tackles), Marion Moore (1 INT) and Walker Braaten (1 INT). North Dakota State scored on 56% of its drives to Fordham's 10%: DJ Scott (12 pts), Nathan Hayes (12 pts) and Chris Kiel (6 pts). Stacked together, it was never close.
The names on it
DJ Scott ran 11 times for 60 yards and two scores and caught two passes for 16 yards, with two of them from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. Nathan Hayes threw for 210 yards on 22 attempts with two touchdowns, including two of them from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Chris Kiel caught four passes for 50 yards, one of them for a touchdown — that score from inside the 20. For Fordham, Gunnar Smith threw for 116 yards on 22 attempts and lost 40 yards on five carries, with four third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Chris Tuck caught two passes for 31 yards. John Morris caught three passes for 37 yards. Jackson Williams was the disruptive one for North Dakota State: 1 INT, 1.5 tackles.
What Fordham has to fix
The problems had names: Gunnar Smith (3 interceptions and 1 lost fumble).
The defensive story
Three names to keep: Jakub Mwangelwa (2 sacks, 2 TFLs, 3 tackles) for Fordham, Jackson Williams (1 INT, 1.5 tackles) for North Dakota State and Marion Moore (1 INT) for North Dakota State. 2 of Fordham's 3 sacks came from the defensive line.
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
North Dakota State did exactly what a better team should against Fordham: leave no doubt.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →