Sacramento State vs. Eastern Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SACTeam statsEMU
- Q4 8:23SACI. Ene run for 1 yd, for a TD (G. Meadors KICK)17–28
- Q4 13:31EMUN. Kim pass to N. Devereaux for 31 yds, for a TD (R. Kessinger KICK)10–28
- Q2 0:54SACXavier Williams 29 Yd Fumble Return (Grant Meadors Kick)10–21
- Q2 5:07EMUBraydon Bennett 7 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)3–21
- Q2 7:50EMUSantonyo Isaac 40 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)3–14
- Q2 9:24SACGrant Meadors 40 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q2 14:20EMUN. Kim run for 5 yds, for a TD (R. Kessinger KICK)0–7
How the model called it
Nobody had Eastern Michigan circled. The numbers behind a result that flips the division.
Noah Kim scored 18 of Eastern Michigan's points. They shock Sacramento State, 28-17 at Rynearson Stadium. Eastern Michigan was not the side anyone expected to be up 11 at the end of it. Noah Kim threw for 279 yards on 38 attempts with two touchdowns and lost 13 yards on six carries, though one of them reached the end zone.
- PassCarson Conklin 25/46, 222 YDS, 1 INT
- RushIsaiah Ene 3 CAR, 44 YDS, 1 TD
- RecOnterrio Smith Jr. 9 REC, 86 YDS
- PassNoah Kim 27/38, 279 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAmareon Blue 12 CAR, 55 YDS
- RecBenson Prosper 7 REC, 81 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Sacramento State vs. Eastern Michigan?
Sacramento State 17, Eastern Michigan 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SAC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SAC | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 268 | Total yards | 348 |
| 222 | Passing yards | 279 |
| 49 | Rushing yards | 69 |
| 13 | First downs | 21 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 25/46 | Comp/Att | 27/38 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-85 | Penalties | 4-29 |
| 27:32 | Possession | 32:28 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:23SACI. Ene run for 1 yd, for a TD (G. Meadors KICK)17–28
- Q4 13:31EMUN. Kim pass to N. Devereaux for 31 yds, for a TD (R. Kessinger KICK)10–28
- Q2 0:54SACXavier Williams 29 Yd Fumble Return (Grant Meadors Kick)10–21
- Q2 5:07EMUBraydon Bennett 7 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)3–21
- Q2 7:50EMUSantonyo Isaac 40 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)3–14
- Q2 9:24SACGrant Meadors 40 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q2 14:20EMUN. Kim run for 5 yds, for a TD (R. Kessinger KICK)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (EMU Elo 1326, SAC Elo 1500 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects EMU +4.6 (39% to win) — 13.6 points clear of SAC's market line of -9. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SAC | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.0 (#113) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#107) |
| -9 / +2 | offense / defense | -10 / -1 |
| 0.83 | points / drive | 1.25 |
| 1.50 | allowed / drive | 1.58 |
| 50% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| +18 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Noah Kim was responsible for 18 of Eastern Michigan's 28 points
Nobody had Eastern Michigan circled. The numbers behind a result that flips the division.
We had this one the other way
Before kickoff we made Sacramento State the pick by about 3. The model missed the side: it favored Sacramento State by ~3, but Eastern Michigan won by 11 as the underdog.
The turnover battle was the game
Eastern Michigan won the turnover battle 0-2, chiefly Jason Marshall (1 INT). Eastern Michigan produced 10 plays of 15+ yards to Sacramento State's 5, chiefly Noah Kim (involved in 8), Nick Devereaux (involved in 2) and Ben Prosper (involved in 2). That's what carried Eastern Michigan.
The plays that turned it
Three snaps account for most of the difference. Noah Kim's 40-yard throw to Santonyo Isaac for a touchdown on 2nd-and-4 at Q2 07:50. Then Isaiah Ene's 37-yard run on 3rd-and-2 at Q4 11:40. Later, Carson Conklin's dropback that came up short on 2nd-and-3 at Q4 03:31.
The standouts
Noah Kim threw for 279 yards on 38 attempts with two touchdowns and lost 13 yards on six carries, though one of them reached the end zone — that score from inside the 20, two third-down conversions and a hand in eight plays of 15 yards or more. Nick Devereaux caught six passes for 73 yards, one of them for a touchdown — two third-down conversions. Ben Prosper caught seven passes for 81 yards. For Sacramento State, Isaiah Ene ran three times for 44 yards and one score — that score from inside the 20. Onterrio Smith Jr. caught nine passes for 86 yards. Carson Conklin threw for 222 yards on 46 attempts and lost 13 yards on two carries, including a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Jason Marshall was the disruptive one for Eastern Michigan: 1 INT.
How it unfolded
Eastern Michigan struck first through Noah Kim, led 21-10 at the half and the final points came on a late touchdown by Isaiah Ene.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Eastern Michigan just rearranged the conversation. Sacramento State has some explaining to do. Isaiah Ene was responsible for 6 of Sacramento State's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →