Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (PSU Elo 1954, MRSH Elo 1468) plus home-field advantage. That projects PSU -23.6 (96% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: PSU · 4 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- MRSH pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. PSU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge MRSH.
- PSU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MRSH rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge PSU.
- MRSH rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. PSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge PSU.
FAQ
Who will win Marshall vs. Penn State?
Gridpex's model favors Penn State with a 96% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Marshall vs. Penn State?
The model projects Penn State by 23.6.
What time is Marshall vs. Penn State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM on FS1, at Beaver Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Penn State at 96% to win, projecting Penn State by 23.6. That's 4 points off the market line — there may be value. Where's the disagreement?