Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (HOU Elo 1512, ORST Elo 1150) plus home-field advantage. That projects HOU -21.7 (95% to win) — 3.2 points of value on HOU versus the market line of -18.5.
Availability-Adjusted Projection
Availability impact
Model estimateNo ruled-out starters
- Out Stacy Sneed (RB)not quantified
Estimates from our player value-over-replacement model (reliable for QBs; softer elsewhere) — a calibrated prior, not a market or backtested figure. Context only, not a betting edge.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: HOU · 6 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- HOU rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. ORST rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge ORST.
- ORST pass offense (0.11 PPA) vs. HOU pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge HOU.
- ORST rush offense (0.01 PPA) vs. HOU rush defense (0.05 allowed) — edge HOU.
FAQ
Who will win Oregon State vs. Houston?
Gridpex's model favors Houston with a 95% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Oregon State vs. Houston?
The model projects Houston by 21.7.
What time is Oregon State vs. Houston and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 5, 4:00 PM on ESPN, at TDECU Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Houston at 95% to win, projecting Houston by 21.7. That's 6 points off the market line — there may be value. Where's the disagreement?