Samford vs. Western Carolina: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Samford

07

Western Carolina0-1

▸0030

Final

E. J. Whitmire StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
SAMF	7	0	0	0	7
WEST	7	13	3	7	30

SAMFTeam statsWEST

361Total yards546

315Pass262

46Rush284

15First downs34

6-133rd down7-13

1Turnovers0

18:51Possession41:09

Scoring plays

• Q4 8:02WESTDesmond Reid 2 Yd Run (Richard McCollum Kick)7–30
• Q3 4:29WESTRichard McCollum 18 Yd Field Goal 7–20
• Q2 0:00WESTRichard McCollum 41 Yd Field Goal 7–17
• Q2 1:38WESTRichard McCollum 23 Yd Field Goal 7–17
• Q2 13:42WESTCensere Lee 6 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Richard McCollum Kick)7–14
• Q1 3:21WESTAJ Colombo 21 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Richard McCollum Kick)7–7
• Q1 7:03SAMFMichael Vice 8 Yd pass from Michael Hiers (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)7–0

What the numbers say

• SAMF played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WEST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.6 vs 3rd & 3.9

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

WEST 100%50%SAMF 100%

Kickoff120 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

WEST (top)SAMF (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WEST 100%

Leaders

Samford

• PassMichael Hiers 21/34, 315 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJay Stanton 7 CAR, 26 YDS
• RecTy King 3 REC, 96 YDS

Western Carolina

• PassCole Gonzales 29/35, 262 YDS, 2 TD
• RushDesmond Reid 27 CAR, 170 YDS, 1 TD
• RecAJ Colombo 5 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.2sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

109

Points / snap

0.34

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

WEST up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,178 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

91%

WEST went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WWake Forest vs Vanderbilt36-20WRutgers vs Temple36-7WIllinois vs Florida Atlantic23-17WChattanooga vs Samford47-24WTulsa vs Temple48-26

Fourth downs

12 calls

WEST gave up 4.0 points to the model on fourth down.SAMF 4/6 · WEST 3/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Samford vs. Western Carolina?

Samford 7, Western Carolina 30.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (WEST) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

SAMF

WEST

46%

Success rate

64%

0.19

EPA / pass

0.48

0.07

EPA / rush

0.17

48%

Early-down success

66%

43%

Pass success

61%

56%

Rush success

67%

21%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

10%

11%

Stuffed rush rate

14%

77%

Pass rate

40%

7.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

3.9

SAMF

7.6 yards to go on 3rd down

39 scrimmage snaps

WEST

3.9 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

SAMF		WEST
361	Total yards	546
315	Passing yards	262
46	Rushing yards	284
15	First downs	34
6-13	3rd down	7-13
0-3	4th down	1-2
21/34	Comp/Att	29/35
9.3	Yards per pass	7.5
2.0	Yards per rush	5.8
1	Turnovers	0
4-55	Penalties	4-35
18:51	Possession	41:09

Fourth downs

12 calls

SAMF

4/6 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

WEST

3/6 with the model

−4.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 4:29 WEST field goal on 4th & 1 at SAMF 1. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.14 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

SAMF 1/9 scoring drives← own end zone →WEST 5/10 scoring drives

WESTTD10 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1

WESTDOWNS14 pl, 72 yds· own 25Q1

SAMFTD7 pl, 97 yds· own 3Q1

WESTTD10 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1

SAMFPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 24Q1

WESTPUNT4 pl, 12 yds· own 49Q2

SAMFFUM8 pl, 20 yds· own 15Q2

SAMFDOWNS5 pl, 72 yds· own 3Q2

WESTFG15 pl, 69 yds· own 25Q2

SAMFDOWNS10 pl, 27 yds· own 17Q2

WESTFG2 pl, 20 yds· opp 44Q2

SAMFPUNT11 pl, 30 yds· own 16Q3

WESTFG13 pl, 84 yds· own 15Q3

SAMFPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 14Q3

WESTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 39Q3

SAMFPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 19Q3

WESTTD10 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q4

SAMFDOWNS7 pl, 44 yds· own 22Q4

WESTUncateg9 pl, 55 yds· own 34Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 8:02WESTDesmond Reid 2 Yd Run (Richard McCollum Kick)7–30
• Q3 4:29WESTRichard McCollum 18 Yd Field Goal 7–20
• Q2 0:00WESTRichard McCollum 41 Yd Field Goal 7–17
• Q2 1:38WESTRichard McCollum 23 Yd Field Goal 7–17
• Q2 13:42WESTCensere Lee 6 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Richard McCollum Kick)7–14
• Q1 3:21WESTAJ Colombo 21 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Richard McCollum Kick)7–7
• Q1 7:03SAMFMichael Vice 8 Yd pass from Michael Hiers (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →