Chattanooga vs. Samford: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Chattanooga

▸0047

Samford0-1

0024

Final

Seibert StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
CHAT	13	21	3	10	47
SAMF	3	14	7	0	24

CHATTeam statsSAMF

429Total yards473

323Pass299

106Rush174

23First downs27

7-123rd down8-16

0Turnovers3

32:43Possession27:17

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:23CHATKameron Brown 78 Yd Interception Return (Jude Kelley Kick)47–24
• Q4 11:58CHATJude Kelley 26 Yd Field Goal 40–24
• Q3 9:09CHATJude Kelley 48 Yd Field Goal 37–24
• Q3 13:36SAMFChandler Smith 21 Yd Run (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)34–24
• Q2 0:30SAMFJay Stanton 3 Yd Run (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)34–17
• Q2 2:46CHATAilym Ford 5 Yd Run (Jude Kelley Kick)34–10
• Q2 8:21CHATAilym Ford 3 Yd Run (Jude Kelley Kick)27–10
• Q2 11:41SAMFTy King 21 Yd pass from Michael Hiers (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)20–10
• Q2 14:18CHATGino Appleberry 2 Yd Run (Jude Kelley Kick)20–3
• Q1 7:48SAMFHenry Bishop 33 Yd Field Goal 13–3
• Q1 11:21CHATAlex Mitchell 38 Yd Interception Return (Jude Kelley PAT failed)13–0
• Q1 11:32CHATTyler Smith 47 Yd pass from Chase Artopoeus (Jude Kelley Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

SAMF −6.5

Against the number

CHAT covered

line SAMF −6.5

What the numbers say

• SAMF played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CHAT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 4.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

SAMF 100%50%CHAT 100%

Kickoff159 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

SAMF (top)CHAT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SAMF 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SAMF −6.5

Closing total

56.0

Model line

—

Actual result

CHAT 47 – 24 SAMF

Leaders

Chattanooga

• PassChase Artopoeus 21/26, 323 YDS, 1 TD
• RushAilym Ford 18 CAR, 53 YDS, 2 TD
• RecJamoi Mayes 4 REC, 114 YDS

Samford

• PassMichael Hiers 33/48, 299 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
• RushJay Stanton 13 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
• RecChandler Smith 8 REC, 87 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.8sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

145

Points / snap

0.49

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

CHAT up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,178 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

91%

CHAT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WWake Forest vs Vanderbilt36-20WWestern Carolina vs Samford30-7WRutgers vs Temple36-7WIllinois vs Florida Atlantic23-17WTulsa vs Temple48-26

Fourth downs

11 calls

SAMF gave up 0.2 points to the model on fourth down.CHAT 5/5 · SAMF 4/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Chattanooga vs. Samford?

Chattanooga 47, Samford 24.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked SAMF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

CHAT

SAMF

55%

Success rate

46%

0.71

EPA / pass

-0.06

0.07

EPA / rush

0.29

54%

Early-down success

45%

64%

Pass success

43%

47%

Rush success

50%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

10%

18%

Stuffed rush rate

9%

45%

Pass rate

61%

4.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.2

CHAT

4.5 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

SAMF

8.2 yards to go on 3rd down

83 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

CHAT		SAMF
429	Total yards	473
323	Passing yards	299
106	Rushing yards	174
23	First downs	27
7-12	3rd down	8-16
1-1	4th down	2-4
21/26	Comp/Att	33/48
12.4	Yards per pass	6.2
2.9	Yards per rush	5.3
0	Turnovers	3
4-29	Penalties	10-104
32:43	Possession	27:17

Fourth downs

11 calls

CHAT

5/5 with the model

nothing given up

SAMF

4/5 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 11:58 SAMF go for it on 4th & 5 at SAMF 40. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.23 points.

Every call, priced (11)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

CHAT 6/10 scoring drives← own end zone →SAMF 6/11 scoring drives

CHATTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

SAMFTD1 pl, 0 yds· own 35Q1

SAMFFG11 pl, 40 yds· own 45Q1

CHATPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1

SAMFMISS10 pl, 25 yds· own 47Q1

CHATTD5 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q1

SAMFTD8 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q2

CHATTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

SAMFDOWNS7 pl, 17 yds· own 35Q2

CHATTD6 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q2

SAMFTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

CHATEND1 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2

SAMFTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

CHATFG9 pl, 53 yds· own 16Q3

SAMFPUNT7 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q3

CHATMISS9 pl, 47 yds· own 18Q3

SAMFFUM3 pl, 23 yds· own 35Q3

CHATFG9 pl, 49 yds· own 42Q3

SAMFTD11 pl, 47 yds· own 35Q4

SAMFDOWNS10 pl, 67 yds· own 25Q4

CHATEND7 pl, 30 yds· own 8Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:23CHATKameron Brown 78 Yd Interception Return (Jude Kelley Kick)47–24
• Q4 11:58CHATJude Kelley 26 Yd Field Goal 40–24
• Q3 9:09CHATJude Kelley 48 Yd Field Goal 37–24
• Q3 13:36SAMFChandler Smith 21 Yd Run (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)34–24
• Q2 0:30SAMFJay Stanton 3 Yd Run (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)34–17
• Q2 2:46CHATAilym Ford 5 Yd Run (Jude Kelley Kick)34–10
• Q2 8:21CHATAilym Ford 3 Yd Run (Jude Kelley Kick)27–10
• Q2 11:41SAMFTy King 21 Yd pass from Michael Hiers (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)20–10
• Q2 14:18CHATGino Appleberry 2 Yd Run (Jude Kelley Kick)20–3
• Q1 7:48SAMFHenry Bishop 33 Yd Field Goal 13–3
• Q1 11:21CHATAlex Mitchell 38 Yd Interception Return (Jude Kelley PAT failed)13–0
• Q1 11:32CHATTyler Smith 47 Yd pass from Chase Artopoeus (Jude Kelley Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →