UTEP vs. Oklahoma: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTEPTeam statsOU
- Q4 12:11OUW. Newbauer run for 3 yds, for a TD (L. Evans KICK)0–51
- Q3 3:15OULiam Evans 34 Yd Field Goal 0–44
- Q3 8:22OUTrell Harris 48 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)0–41
- Q3 11:47OUIsaiah Sategna III 34 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)0–34
- Q2 1:42OUTate Sandell 32 Yd Field Goal 0–27
- Q2 5:00OUTate Sandell 33 Yd Field Goal 0–24
- Q1 1:01OURocky Beers 40 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)0–21
- Q1 7:27OUIsaiah Sategna III 88 Yd Punt Return (Tate Sandell Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:16OULloyd Avant 1 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)0–7
How it was won
Efficiency gap
Oklahoma stayed on schedule on 55% of its snaps and converted 6 of 11 third downs, while UTEP managed only 35.7% and 2 of 13.
Mateer's passing
John Mateer threw 11 of 17 for 225 yards and three touchdowns, accounting for most of Oklahoma’s 401 total yards.
UTEP's risky fourth
UTEP went for it on 4th‑and‑9 at the 70 in Q4, a call costing about 0.77 expected points versus a punt.
Turnover margin
Oklahoma forced two turnovers while committing only one, and held UTEP to 198 yards on 29:28 of possession.
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UTEP played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.1 vs 3rd & 4.0
Oklahoma shut out UTEP 51-0 behind a true freshman center, and the line problem it revealed a week before Michigan is at left tackle, not the middle.
Oklahoma's published depth chart, reported by Sooners Wire's John Williams, had Ryan Fodje at center and true freshman Noah Best listed as a co-starter at right guard. Jake Maikkula, the projected starter, sprained an MCL in a fall-camp scrimmage. Fodje hurt a knee in Monday's practice, per KOKH, and was ruled out. Best made his first career start Friday at a position the staff had never listed him at, and Oklahoma won 51-0.
- PassEJ Colson Jr. 6/12, 52 YDS
- RushRaymond Moore III 9 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecTavorus Jones 3 REC, 22 YDS
- PassJohn Mateer 11/17, 225 YDS, 3 TD
- RushLloyd Avant 15 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- RecIsaiah Sategna III 4 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOU up 44 entering the 4th quarter. Across 179 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of UTEP vs. Oklahoma?
UTEP 0, Oklahoma 51.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OU) was correct.
| UTEP | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| 198 | Total yards | 401 |
| 86 | Passing yards | 231 |
| 112 | Rushing yards | 170 |
| 10 | First downs | 18 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 6-11 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 10/18 | Comp/Att | 12/19 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 12.2 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 29:28 | Possession | 30:32 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:41 UTEP go for it on 4th & 9 at UTEP 30. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.77 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:11OUW. Newbauer run for 3 yds, for a TD (L. Evans KICK)0–51
- Q3 3:15OULiam Evans 34 Yd Field Goal 0–44
- Q3 8:22OUTrell Harris 48 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)0–41
- Q3 11:47OUIsaiah Sategna III 34 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)0–34
- Q2 1:42OUTate Sandell 32 Yd Field Goal 0–27
- Q2 5:00OUTate Sandell 33 Yd Field Goal 0–24
- Q1 1:01OURocky Beers 40 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)0–21
- Q1 7:27OUIsaiah Sategna III 88 Yd Punt Return (Tate Sandell Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:16OULloyd Avant 1 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OU Elo 1706, UTEP Elo 1256 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OU -37.4 (100% to win) — 3.1 points clear of UTEP's market line of -40.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTEP | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.9 (#134) | CORE overall | +16.4 (#21) |
| -13 / +4 | offense / defense | +6 / -10 |
| -0.64 | points / drive | 4.00 |
| 4.00 | allowed / drive | -0.64 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -10 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Noah Best held up. Michigan week is about Michael Fasusi
Oklahoma shut out UTEP 51-0 behind a true freshman center, and the line problem it revealed a week before Michigan is at left tackle, not the middle.
Venables spent the week backing Caleb Nitta
Best was not the public plan. Venables spent game week endorsing Western Kentucky transfer Caleb Nitta, "a mature guy, really smart guy" with "great toughness." Best started anyway, Nitta opened the second quarter, Best came back in the third, and Georgia Tech transfer Peyton Joseph joined the starting group early in that quarter, which SI's John Hoover called Bill Bedenbaugh continuing "the search for his best five." Nobody has reported when the switch was made.
The center job had been thrown open in camp, with Nitta, Fodje and Best all taking reps there, so the rotation was contingency rather than verdict. On the snaps themselves there is one quote and no count: "His poise, composure, he snapped the ball well. I think we had a couple that were just a little bit off," Venables told OU Sooners on SI. No bad-snap total and no baseline have been published.
Bedenbaugh survived the purge that took Seth Littrell
Oklahoma lost 35-9 at home to South Carolina on October 19, 2024, and fired offensive coordinator Seth Littrell the next day, ESPN reported, with Venables saying the offense "has not at all lived up to the OU standard." On December 4, announcing Ben Arbuckle as the replacement, he kept the position coaches. Asked directly at signing day, per OU Sooners on SI: "We'll retain all of them." Bedenbaugh is in his 14th year in Norman.
What that line had just done is on the record. John Hoover counted 3.85 sacks allowed per game in 2024, 3.78 yards per carry, ten linemen starting at least one game and nearly 50 games lost to injury, and graded the unit a D. No count of distinct starting fives was published. Stormin' in Norman's Randall Sweet placed Bedenbaugh behind receivers coach Emmett Jones on a preseason list of coaches under pressure, with fans who "could begin to question Bedenbaugh once again."
The 170 rushing yards include a fourth quarter without Mateer
Analyst Evan Kamikow told News 9 before kickoff that "if it doesn't put up 200 yards on the ground, I think there's cause for concern." Oklahoma finished with 170. That is one man's benchmark, and not all of those yards belonged to the people it was set for: KTSM reported Mateer was pulled in the third quarter, and Ben McCreary's 24-yard run at 3:13 of the fourth sits inside the total. No starters-only split exists.
The Sporting News' Cliff Brunt split it into 32 yards on the first three carries and 138 on the remaining 36. Lloyd Avant carried 15 times for 79 yards and scored from a yard out at 9:16 of the first quarter. Stormin' in Norman set the 170 against 118 in last year's opener, a 35-3 win over Illinois State, same coordinator and same quarterback. That was an FCS team off a 10-4 season and a playoff run, which is not the soft comparison the label suggests.
Mateer threw deep middle twice and scored both times
John Mateer went 11-of-17 for 225 yards and three touchdowns. What the play-by-play records is the catch point, not the air yards: Rocky Beers caught his 40-yard score at the UTEP 21 at 1:01 of the first quarter, Isaiah Sategna caught a 34-yard score at the UTEP 7, and Trell Harris caught the 48-yard touchdown at the UTEP 20 on third-and-1 at 8:22 of the third. Arbuckle called the Beers throw "good coverage for the specific call," beaten by the route.
The hand behind those throws was rebuilt. Mateer broke a bone in his right hand in the first quarter against Auburn on September 20, 2025, per ESPN, had surgery four days later, missed one game and returned 17 days later to start Red River. PFF graded him at 50.3 from Week 7 onward, "one of the lowest marks in the country." In June he told A to Z Sports the injury "affected me a good amount." Friday went the other way.
Isaiah Sategna fielded Brady Braun's 59-yard punt and returned it 88 yards for a touchdown at 7:27 of the first quarter, then caught four passes for 76 yards and finished with 215 all-purpose yards. Oklahoma's 11 drives began an average of 57.4 yards from the end zone and UTEP's 13 from 69.9, drives after turnovers included and no median published.
A shutout with about a dozen missed tackles in it
UTEP came in 2-10 and in its first year in the Mountain West. Scotty Walden is in his third season at 5-19, hired from Austin Peay, where he went 26-14. EJ Colson, a redshirt sophomore from Incarnate Word by way of UCF, went 6-of-12 for 52 yards in his UTEP debut and got the Miners to the Oklahoma 15 at 3:34 of the first quarter, where his throw fell incomplete to Carver Cheeks in the end zone. Dane Bathurst's sack at 5:25 of the fourth ended a second trip to the 15.
"Thought we were sloppy tackling on defense. I didn't like that at all," Venables told OU Sooners on SI. Stormin' in Norman characterized the misses as approximately a dozen, a columnist's estimate with no tackle opportunities behind it. One name is attached anywhere: SI's Brady Trantham read Kip Lewis's 57.4 PFF grade on 32 snaps as reflecting a few missed tackles, against Owen Heinecke's 77.7 on 34 and Peyton Bowen's 81.0 on 35, the latter forcing Tavorus Jones's fumble at 12:33 of the third.
Those snap counts are too small to separate three grades. Nobody attached the coverage Venables called "a little loose" to Brandon Hall's safeties or to LaMar Morgan's corners, in Morgan's first season after two years at Michigan. Lewis is an inside linebacker, Nate Dreiling's group on Oklahoma's staff directory, where Todd Bates carries run defense in his title. OU Daily placed the lapses in the first half, not among backups. Venables took over the defensive play-calling in 2025 and answered for it alone.
Michigan week is about Michael Fasusi, not Noah Best
Games since 2019 whose shape most resembles this one — matched on how close the margin was, how far the result ran from the spread, and how each offense performed against its own season norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
No cohort of games like this supports a forecast about next Saturday; the margin was 51 and Oklahoma's offense was above its own level, not below it. Nobody has put Michigan's front on the record this week either. What is reportable: Maikkula and Fodje are back at full speed, John Hoover wrote, and Michael Fasusi played 17 snaps with shoulder soreness and was very limited Monday, blocking with one arm. The freshman center was never the Michigan problem; the left tackle is.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →