Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PITTTeam statsND
- Q4 3:41NDCooper Flanagan 19 Yd pass from Steve Angeli (Zac Yoakam Kick)7–58
- Q4 8:18PITTKonata Mumpfield 25 Yd pass from Nate Yarnell (Ben Sauls Kick)7–51
- Q4 9:47NDAudric Estime 5 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–51
- Q3 2:21NDAudric Estime 3 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–44
- Q3 8:21NDRamon Henderson 0 Yd Fumble Return (Spencer Shrader PAT failed)0–37
- Q3 10:12NDJaden Mickey 43 Yd Interception Return (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–31
- Q3 11:07NDJadarian Price 10 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–24
- Q2 0:00NDSpencer Shrader 23 Yd Field Goal0–17
- Q2 10:07NDAudric Estime 15 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:18NDChris Tyree 82 Yd Punt Return (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- PITT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 31% success rate
- PassChristian Veilleux 14/29, 127 YDS, 4 INT
- RushRodney Hammond Jr. 6 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecBub Means 3 REC, 63 YDS
- PassSam Hartman 18/25, 288 YDS, 2 INT
- RushAudric Estime 19 CAR, 114 YDS, 3 TD
- RecRico Flores Jr. 2 REC, 72 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsND up 44 entering the 4th quarter. Across 177 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:18ND +9%
Chris Tyree 82 Yd Punt Return (Spencer Shrader Kick)
- Q2 10:07ND +5%
Audric Estime run for 15 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame?
Pittsburgh 7, Notre Dame 58.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
| PITT | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 255 | Total yards | 535 |
| 202 | Passing yards | 380 |
| 53 | Rushing yards | 155 |
| 11 | First downs | 25 |
| 1-11 | 3rd down | 4-8 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 16/32 | Comp/Att | 24/32 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 11.9 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 6-75 |
| 24:29 | Possession | 35:31 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:14 ND punt on 4th & 3 at PITT 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.80 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:41NDCooper Flanagan 19 Yd pass from Steve Angeli (Zac Yoakam Kick)7–58
- Q4 8:18PITTKonata Mumpfield 25 Yd pass from Nate Yarnell (Ben Sauls Kick)7–51
- Q4 9:47NDAudric Estime 5 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–51
- Q3 2:21NDAudric Estime 3 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–44
- Q3 8:21NDRamon Henderson 0 Yd Fumble Return (Spencer Shrader PAT failed)0–37
- Q3 10:12NDJaden Mickey 43 Yd Interception Return (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–31
- Q3 11:07NDJadarian Price 10 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–24
- Q2 0:00NDSpencer Shrader 23 Yd Field Goal0–17
- Q2 10:07NDAudric Estime 15 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:18NDChris Tyree 82 Yd Punt Return (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ND Elo 1892, PITT Elo 1544 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ND -16.3 (86% to win) — 4.7 points clear of PITT's market line of -21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNotre Dame leads 52–21–1 · Notre Dame has won 5 straight · 32% have been one-possession games
| PITT | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.2 (#60) | CORE overall | +29.3 (#5) |
| -7 / -7 | offense / defense | +14 / -15 |
| 1.17 | points / drive | 3.02 |
| 2.09 | allowed / drive | 1.44 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →