South Dakota State vs. Northern Iowa: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

South Dakota State0-1

▸0041

Northern Iowa0-2

03

Final

UNI-DomeConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
SOUT	7	20	14	0	41
NORT	0	3	0	0	3

SOUTTeam statsNORT

390Total yards246

251Pass180

139Rush66

17First downs16

5-123rd down3-13

0Turnovers4

30:43Possession29:17

Scoring plays

• Q3 10:08SOUTAngel Johnson 68 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)41–3
• Q3 12:39SOUTGrahm Goering 7 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)34–3
• Q2 0:07SOUTHunter Dustman 41 Yd Field Goal 27–3
• Q2 1:25NORTCaden Palmer 40 Yd Field Goal 24–3
• Q2 8:16SOUTChase Mason 6 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)24–0
• Q2 9:33SOUTNoah Thompson 49 Yd Punt Return (Hunter Dustman Kick)17–0
• Q2 14:53SOUTHunter Dustman 22 Yd Field Goal 10–0
• Q1 8:43SOUTKentrell Prejean 16 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

SOUT −24.5

Against the number

SOUT covered

line SOUT −24.5

What the numbers say

• NORT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SOUT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 6.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NORT 100%50%SOUT 100%

Kickoff136 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

NORT (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NORT 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SOUT −24.5

Closing total

48.5

Model line

—

Actual result

SOUT 41 – 3 NORT

Leaders

South Dakota State

• PassMark Gronowski 16/22, 223 YDS, 3 TD
• RushKirby Vorhees 8 CAR, 45 YDS
• RecAngel Johnson 2 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD

Northern Iowa

• PassAidan Dunne 8/15, 113 YDS, 2 INT
• RushTye Edwards 12 CAR, 62 YDS
• RecSergio Morancy 6 REC, 73 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.4sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

122

Points / snap

0.36

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

SOUT up 44 entering the 4th quarter. Across 177 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

SOUT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUtah State vs Idaho State78-28WMerrimack vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg46-0WMonmouth vs Hampton61-10WNotre Dame vs Pittsburgh58-7WMiami vs Florida A&M56-9

Fourth downs

15 calls

NORT gave up 3.8 points to the model on fourth down.SOUT 4/6 · NORT 5/9 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of South Dakota State vs. Northern Iowa?

South Dakota State 41, Northern Iowa 3.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked NORT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

SOUT

NORT

45%

Success rate

31%

0.47

EPA / pass

0.18

-0.06

EPA / rush

-0.42

45%

Early-down success

30%

52%

Pass success

32%

40%

Rush success

29%

8%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

7%

23%

Stuffed rush rate

32%

42%

Pass rate

55%

6.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.6

SOUT

6.5 yards to go on 3rd down

60 scrimmage snaps

NORT

8.6 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

SOUT		NORT
390	Total yards	246
251	Passing yards	180
139	Rushing yards	66
17	First downs	16
5-12	3rd down	3-13
1-1	4th down	2-3
19/26	Comp/Att	17/31
9.7	Yards per pass	5.8
4.1	Yards per rush	2.1
0	Turnovers	4
2-15	Penalties	2-15
30:43	Possession	29:17

Fourth downs

15 calls

SOUT

4/6 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

NORT

5/9 with the model

−3.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 7:12 NORT punt on 4th & 1 at NORT 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

SOUT 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →NORT 2/12 scoring drives

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1

NORTFUM3 pl, 25 yds· own 27Q1

SOUTTD6 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q1

NORTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q1

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 39Q1

NORTINT2 pl, 13 yds· own 8Q1

SOUTFG9 pl, 29 yds· opp 34Q1

NORTEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

NORTTD9 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q2

NORTUncateg2 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q2

SOUTTD2 pl, 14 yds· opp 14Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q2

SOUTPUNT5 pl, 27 yds· own 22Q2

NORTFG8 pl, 57 yds· own 20Q2

SOUTFG9 pl, 41 yds· own 35Q2

NORTINT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q3

SOUTTD3 pl, 9 yds· opp 9Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q3

SOUTTD3 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

NORTPUNT13 pl, 40 yds· own 25Q3

SOUTMISS7 pl, 42 yds· own 25Q3

NORTDOWNS14 pl, 50 yds· own 33Q4

SOUTUncateg14 pl, 81 yds· own 17Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 10:08SOUTAngel Johnson 68 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)41–3
• Q3 12:39SOUTGrahm Goering 7 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)34–3
• Q2 0:07SOUTHunter Dustman 41 Yd Field Goal 27–3
• Q2 1:25NORTCaden Palmer 40 Yd Field Goal 24–3
• Q2 8:16SOUTChase Mason 6 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)24–0
• Q2 9:33SOUTNoah Thompson 49 Yd Punt Return (Hunter Dustman Kick)17–0
• Q2 14:53SOUTHunter Dustman 22 Yd Field Goal 10–0
• Q1 8:43SOUTKentrell Prejean 16 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →