Eastern Illinois vs. Minnesota: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
EASTTeam statsMINN
- Q4 0:25MINNXavier Ford 1 Yd Run (Beckham Sunderland Kick)7–59
- Q4 12:29MINNMax Shikenjanski 2 Yd Run (Daniel Jackson Kick)7–52
- Q3 3:17MINNDaniel Jackson 31 Yd Field Goal 7–45
- Q3 13:26MINNJavon Tracy 69 Yd Punt Return (Daniel Jackson Kick)7–42
- Q2 0:06MINNPierce Walsh 1 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Daniel Jackson Kick)7–35
- Q2 3:15MINNDarius Taylor 3 Yd Run (Daniel Jackson Kick)7–28
- Q2 9:00EASTTyren Buggs 8 Yd pass from Cole LaCrue (Drew Schiller Kick)7–21
- Q2 14:20MINNDarius Taylor 27 Yd Run (Daniel Jackson Kick)0–21
- Q1 2:14MINNJavon Tracy 87 Yd Punt Return (Daniel Jackson Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:29MINNDarius Taylor 1 Yd Run (Daniel Jackson Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- EAST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MINN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 4.7
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
This one was over early. Minnesota dismantles Eastern Illinois, 59-7 at Huntington Bank Stadium. Minnesota led from start to finish and never let Eastern Illinois within striking distance. Darius Taylor ran 14 times for 56 yards and three scores and caught three passes for 31 yards.
- PassCole LaCrue 7/12, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCole LaCrue 5 CAR, 22 YDS
- RecTyren Buggs 2 REC, 38 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDrake Lindsey 19/24, 264 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDarius Taylor 14 CAR, 56 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJavon Tracy 5 REC, 98 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMINN up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:42MINN +95%
PENALTY MINN False Start (#87 K.Helms) 5 yards from EIU08 to EIU13. NO PLAY
- Q4 3:59EAST +76%
#28 N.Castillo rush middle for 1 yard gain to the EIU33 (#16 M.Valenzuela)
- Q4 3:12EAST +6%
Shotgun #16 B.Palmer rush left for 8 yards gain to the EIU25 (#7 C.Henry), out of bounds
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Illinois vs. Minnesota?
Eastern Illinois 7, Minnesota 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MINN) was correct.
| EAST | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 110 | Total yards | 495 |
| 59 | Passing yards | 348 |
| 51 | Rushing yards | 147 |
| 4 | First downs | 24 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 10-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 9/15 | Comp/Att | 26/33 |
| 3.9 | Yards per pass | 10.5 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-35 | Penalties | 2-10 |
| 23:39 | Possession | 36:21 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:19 MINN punt on 4th & 5 at EAST 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.00 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:25MINNXavier Ford 1 Yd Run (Beckham Sunderland Kick)7–59
- Q4 12:29MINNMax Shikenjanski 2 Yd Run (Daniel Jackson Kick)7–52
- Q3 3:17MINNDaniel Jackson 31 Yd Field Goal 7–45
- Q3 13:26MINNJavon Tracy 69 Yd Punt Return (Daniel Jackson Kick)7–42
- Q2 0:06MINNPierce Walsh 1 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Daniel Jackson Kick)7–35
- Q2 3:15MINNDarius Taylor 3 Yd Run (Daniel Jackson Kick)7–28
- Q2 9:00EASTTyren Buggs 8 Yd pass from Cole LaCrue (Drew Schiller Kick)7–21
- Q2 14:20MINNDarius Taylor 27 Yd Run (Daniel Jackson Kick)0–21
- Q1 2:14MINNJavon Tracy 87 Yd Punt Return (Daniel Jackson Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:29MINNDarius Taylor 1 Yd Run (Daniel Jackson Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects MINN -37.2 (99% to win) — 5.4 points clear of EAST's market line of -42.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Drake Lindsey produced nine of Minnesota's twelve explosive plays
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
The big plays only went one way
Minnesota produced 12 plays of 15+ yards to Eastern Illinois's 2, led by Drake Lindsey (involved in 9), Javon Tracy (involved in 3) and Darius Taylor (involved in 2). Minnesota scored on 70% of its drives to Eastern Illinois's 23%: Drake Lindsey (6 pts), Darius Taylor (18 pts) and Max Shikenjanski (6 pts). Stacked together, it was never close.
The difference-makers
Drake Lindsey threw for 264 yards on 24 attempts with one touchdown and ran two times for 6 yards, including that score from inside the 20, five third-down conversions and a hand in nine plays of 15 yards or more. Darius Taylor ran 14 times for 56 yards and three scores and caught three passes for 31 yards, with two of them from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. Javon Tracy caught five passes for 98 yards, including three third-down conversions and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. For Eastern Illinois, Cole Lacrue threw for 51 yards on 12 attempts with one touchdown and ran five times for 22 yards, with that score from inside the 20 and three third-down conversions. Tyren Buggs caught two passes for 38 yards, one of them for a touchdown — that score from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. Zeke Lewis caught one pass for 10 yards. TJ Bush Jr. was the disruptive one for Minnesota: 1 sack, 1.5 TFLs, 3 tackles.
What Eastern Illinois has to fix
Eastern Illinois was not without production. Cole Lacrue threw for 51 yards on 12 attempts with one touchdown and ran five times for 22 yards, but it arrived in a game that was already gone.
Who got home
Two names to keep: TJ Bush Jr. (1 sack, 1.5 TFLs, 3 tackles) for Minnesota and Nate Cleveland (1 forced fumble) for Minnesota.
How we got here
Minnesota struck first through Darius Taylor, led 35-7 at the half and the final points came on a late touchdown by Xavier Ford.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Business handled for Minnesota. The question now is whether the opponent told us anything. Cole Lacrue was responsible for 6 of Eastern Illinois's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →