Florida International vs. South Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FIUTeam statsUSF
- Q4 0:00FIUJames Resar 21 Yd pass from JJ Kohl 9–19
- Q4 1:44USFNico Gramatica 29 Yd Field Goal 3–19
- Q4 7:03USFNico Gramatica 30 Yd Field Goal 3–16
- Q4 13:07USFD.J. Crowther 1 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)3–13
- Q3 9:04FIURobert Czeremcha 29 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q2 10:26USFNico Gramatica 53 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 0:00USFNico Gramatica 37 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What actually decided South Florida's win over Florida International — beyond the final score.
South Florida takes down Florida International, 19-9 at Raymond James Stadium. South Florida was the steadier side of a 10-point win.
- PassJJ Kohl 31/50, 301 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJJ Kohl 6 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecMaguire Anderson 8 REC, 87 YDS
- PassMichael Van Buren Jr. 11/18, 100 YDS
- RushJason Collins Jr. 17 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecArhmad Branch 5 REC, 47 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSF up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:28USF +68%
Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush left for 0 yards to the FIU01 (#4 M.Williams II)
- Q4 4:17FIU +38%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #4 A.Branch caught at FIU35, for 11 yards to the FIU29 (#2 D.Boykins; #0 D.Floyd), 1ST DOWN
- Q4 1:40FIU +30%
Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short middle to #6 E.Nelson caught at FIU15, for 9 yards to the FIU22 (#1 C.Hicks)
- Q4 13:07USF +26%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 9:04USF +18%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #8 W.Sullivan thrown to USF42
- Q3 3:32USF +14%
#5 D.Crowther rush middle for 10 yards gain to the FIU25 (#9 J.Taylor; #18 P.Stewart), 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. South Florida?
Florida International 9, South Florida 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USF) was correct.
| FIU | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 381 | Total yards | 208 |
| 301 | Passing yards | 100 |
| 80 | Rushing yards | 108 |
| 19 | First downs | 14 |
| 5-17 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 3-7 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 31/50 | Comp/Att | 11/18 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 2.8 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-50 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 29:51 | Possession | 30:09 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:28 USF punt on 4th & 4 at FIU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00FIUJames Resar 21 Yd pass from JJ Kohl 9–19
- Q4 1:44USFNico Gramatica 29 Yd Field Goal 3–19
- Q4 7:03USFNico Gramatica 30 Yd Field Goal 3–16
- Q4 13:07USFD.J. Crowther 1 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)3–13
- Q3 9:04FIURobert Czeremcha 29 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q2 10:26USFNico Gramatica 53 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 0:00USFNico Gramatica 37 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1682, FIU Elo 1382 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF -17.5 (86% to win) — 3.0 points clear of USF's market line of -14.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FIU | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.0 (#81) | CORE overall | +2.6 (#62) |
| -7 / -4 | offense / defense | -2 / -5 |
| 1.11 | points / drive | 2.11 |
| 2.11 | allowed / drive | 1.11 |
| 11% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +14 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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South Florida takes down Florida International, 19-9
What actually decided South Florida's win over Florida International — beyond the final score.
The big plays only went one way
Florida International produced 10 plays of 15+ yards to South Florida's 0, led by J.J. Kohl (involved in 9), Maguire Anderson (involved in 2) and JoJo Stone (involved in 1). South Florida won the turnover battle 0-2, chiefly Tayvion Beasley (1 TFL, 1 INT, 4 tackles) and Tavin Ward (1 INT, 4 tackles). South Florida won anyway.
The names on it
D.J. Crowther ran 14 times for 42 yards and one score — that score from inside the 20. Jason Collins Jr. ran 17 times for 59 yards. For Florida International, J.J. Kohl threw for 301 yards on 50 attempts with one touchdown and ran six times for 31 yards, including five third-down conversions and a hand in nine plays of 15 yards or more. Maguire Anderson caught eight passes for 87 yards. James Resar caught three passes for 31 yards, one of them for a touchdown. Tayvion Beasley was the disruptive one for South Florida: 1 TFL, 1 INT, 4 tackles.
Three plays
The game turned on a handful of snaps. J.J. Kohl's 19-yard throw to Maguire Anderson on 2nd-and-10 at Q2 15:00. Then J.J. Kohl's 16-yard throw to Eric Nelson on 3rd-and-14 at Q2 01:54. Later, J.J. Kohl's 8-yard throw to Maguire Anderson on 4th-and-2 at Q3 15:00.
The order of events
South Florida struck first through Nico Gramatica, led 6-0 at the half and Florida International got the final points on a late score by James Resar.
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
A solid, earned win for South Florida; Florida International is left to clean up the details that cost it.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →