Tulane vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TULNTeam statsDUKE
- Q4 6:44DUKENate Sheppard 14 Yd Run (Cosme Salas Kick)3–17
- Q4 13:37TULNJackson Courville 37 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 0:00DUKECosme Salas 22 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 5:07DUKENate Sheppard 9 Yd Run (Cosme Salas Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TULN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and DUKE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.1 vs 3rd & 7.1
Past the box score: where Duke won this one.
Duke tops Tulane, 17-3 at Wallace Wade Stadium. Duke was the steadier side of a 14-point win. Nate Sheppard ran 35 times for 227 yards and two scores and caught three passes for 19 yards.
- PassKadin Semonza 11/21, 140 YDS
- RushJohnnie Daniels 8 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecDestyn Hill 5 REC, 67 YDS
- PassWalker Eget 13/26, 131 YDS
- RushNate Sheppard 35 CAR, 227 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJonah Burton 3 REC, 38 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDUKE up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:05TULN +7%
PENALTY DUKE False Start (#56 N.Del Grande) 5 yards from TULANE36 to TULANE41. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulane vs. Duke?
Tulane 3, Duke 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (DUKE) was correct.
| TULN | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 258 | Total yards | 381 |
| 204 | Passing yards | 131 |
| 54 | Rushing yards | 250 |
| 10 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 8-18 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 17/30 | Comp/Att | 13/28 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 4.7 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 15-109 | Penalties | 8-53 |
| 23:25 | Possession | 36:35 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:35 DUKE go for it on 4th & 7 at TULN 31. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.34 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:44DUKENate Sheppard 14 Yd Run (Cosme Salas Kick)3–17
- Q4 13:37TULNJackson Courville 37 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 0:00DUKECosme Salas 22 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 5:07DUKENate Sheppard 9 Yd Run (Cosme Salas Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1581, TULN Elo 1555 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE -9.1 (71% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TULN | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1 (#74) | CORE overall | +4.6 (#53) |
| -6 / -5 | offense / defense | -1 / -5 |
| 0.25 | points / drive | 1.42 |
| 1.42 | allowed / drive | 0.25 |
| 42% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Duke rode Nate Sheppard for 227 yards on the ground
Past the box score: where Duke won this one.
Third down decided the possession count
Duke converted 8 of 17 third downs (47%) to Tulane's 21%, chiefly Nate Sheppard (4/6), Walker Eget (4/9) and Jonah Burton (2/3). Duke sacked Tulane's quarterback 2 times, led by Bradley Gompers (1 sack) and Bryce Davis (1 sack). That's what carried Duke.
Who carried it
Nate Sheppard ran 35 times for 227 yards and two scores and caught three passes for 19 yards — two of them from inside the 20 and four third-down conversions. Walker Eget threw for 131 yards on 26 attempts and lost 9 yards on one carries, with four third-down conversions. Jonah Burton caught three passes for 38 yards, with two third-down conversions. For Tulane, Maurice Turner ran four times for 15 yards and caught one pass for 44 yards. Cash Semonza caught one pass for 11 yards — a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Bredell Richardson caught two passes for 28 yards. Bradley Gompers was the disruptive one for Duke: 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 PBU, 3 tackles.
Where it swung
Strip it back and a few snaps did the work. Zeon Chriss-Gremillion's 44-yard throw to Maurice Turner on 3rd-and-3 at Q2 08:02. Then Nate Sheppard's 13-yard run that came up short on 2nd-and-2 at Q3 12:29. Later, Walker Eget's 0-yard attempt to Jake Taylor that came up short on 4th-and-4 at Q3 04:54.
The way it played out
Duke struck first through Nate Sheppard, led 10-0 at the half and Duke got the final points on a late touchdown by Nate Sheppard.
Who got home
Three names to keep, all for Duke: Bradley Gompers (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 PBU, 3 tackles), Bryce Davis (1 sack, 2 TFLs, 4 tackles) and Luke Mergott (1 forced fumble, 3.5 tackles).
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Duke was the better team and looked it; Tulane has fixable problems.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →