Nicholls vs. Kansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NICHTeam statsKSU
- Q4 8:02KSUJacob Knuth 2 Yd Run (Aidan O'Neill Kick)3–71
- Q4 13:19KSUMonterrio Elston Jr. 46 Yd Run (Robert Hammond III Kick)3–64
- Q3 2:08KSUJay Harris 11 Yd Run (Robert Hammond III Kick)3–57
- Q3 5:52KSUJoe Jackson 11 Yd Run (Robert Hammond III Kick)3–50
- Q3 8:28KSUJosh Manning 11 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Robert Hammond III Kick)3–43
- Q2 1:58KSUJoe Jackson 43 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)3–36
- Q2 5:48NICHKingston Phan 32 Yd Field Goal 3–29
- Q2 10:09KSURodney Fields Jr. 26 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)0–29
- Q1 0:29KSUBrandon White 65 Yd Punt Return (Luis Rodriguez Kick)0–22
- Q1 6:59KSUAvery Johnson 10 Yd Run (Linkon Cure Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
- Q1 12:36KSUJaron Tibbs 7 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Kansas State was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
Nicholls went three-and-out on 71% of its drives. That is the game. Kansas State runs away from Nicholls, 71-3 at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. Kansas State led from start to finish and never let Nicholls within striking distance. Avery Johnson threw for 199 yards on 21 attempts with three touchdowns and ran four times for 23 yards and one score.
- PassEan Rodrigue 7/19, 30 YDS
- RushTamaj Hoffman 9 CAR, 43 YDS
- RecJordan Smith 2 REC, 14 YDS
- PassAvery Johnson 15/21, 199 YDS, 3 TD
- RushRodney Fields Jr. 14 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJoe Jackson 2 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKSU up 54 entering the 4th quarter. Across 58 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Nicholls vs. Kansas State?
Nicholls 3, Kansas State 71.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KSU) was correct.
| NICH | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 122 | Total yards | 559 |
| 30 | Passing yards | 247 |
| 92 | Rushing yards | 312 |
| 9 | First downs | 34 |
| 4-16 | 3rd down | 9-11 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 7/19 | Comp/Att | 20/27 |
| 1.6 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 7.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-26 | Penalties | 1-10 |
| 26:17 | Possession | 33:43 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:29 NICH punt on 4th & 1 at NICH 15. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:02KSUJacob Knuth 2 Yd Run (Aidan O'Neill Kick)3–71
- Q4 13:19KSUMonterrio Elston Jr. 46 Yd Run (Robert Hammond III Kick)3–64
- Q3 2:08KSUJay Harris 11 Yd Run (Robert Hammond III Kick)3–57
- Q3 5:52KSUJoe Jackson 11 Yd Run (Robert Hammond III Kick)3–50
- Q3 8:28KSUJosh Manning 11 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Robert Hammond III Kick)3–43
- Q2 1:58KSUJoe Jackson 43 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)3–36
- Q2 5:48NICHKingston Phan 32 Yd Field Goal 3–29
- Q2 10:09KSURodney Fields Jr. 26 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)0–29
- Q1 0:29KSUBrandon White 65 Yd Punt Return (Luis Rodriguez Kick)0–22
- Q1 6:59KSUAvery Johnson 10 Yd Run (Linkon Cure Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
- Q1 12:36KSUJaron Tibbs 7 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects KSU -34.9 (98% to win) — 6.6 points clear of NICH's market line of -41.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Kansas State runs away from Nicholls, 71-3
Kansas State was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
One team finished its drives
Kansas State scored on 75% of its drives to Nicholls's 14%, led by Avery Johnson (24 pts), Joe Jackson (12 pts) and Rodney Fields Jr. (6 pts). Kansas State converted 9 of 11 third downs (82%) to Nicholls's 25%: Avery Johnson (3/4), Rodney Fields Jr. (3/3) and Blake Barnett (2/2). Stacked together, it was never close.
The names on it
Avery Johnson threw for 199 yards on 21 attempts with three touchdowns and ran four times for 23 yards and one score — three of them from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Joe Jackson ran seven times for 38 yards and one score and caught two passes for 48 yards, one of them for a touchdown, including that score from inside the 20. Rodney Fields Jr. ran 14 times for 101 yards and one score, including three third-down conversions. For Nicholls, Ean Rodrigue threw for 30 yards on 19 attempts and ran six times for 24 yards. Shane Lee ran 10 times for 12 yards. Darien Whitaker Jr. was the disruptive one for Kansas State: 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 fumble rec, 2 tackles.
What Nicholls has to fix
The problems had names: Ean Rodrigue (1 lost fumble).
The defensive story
Three names to keep: Darien Whitaker Jr. (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 fumble rec, 2 tackles) for Kansas State, R.Van (1 forced fumble) for Kansas State and Alex Villavaso (1 TFL, 1 forced fumble, 1.5 tackles) for Nicholls.
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Kansas State did exactly what a better team should against Nicholls: leave no doubt.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →