Virginia Lynchburg vs. Kennesaw State: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Virginia Lynchburg1-8

03

Kennesaw State0-1

▸0063

Final

Fifth Third Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
VIRG	0	3	0	0	3
KENN	21	21	14	7	63

VIRGTeam statsKENN

105Total yards538

50Pass156

55Rush382

8First downs33

1-113rd down7-8

1Turnovers0

26:57Possession33:03

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:20KENNKenai Grier 17 Yd Run (Erik Calvillo Kick)3–63
• Q3 1:23KENNDJ Scott 1 Yd Run (Erik Calvillo Kick)3–56
• Q3 10:46KENNDavis Bryson 17 Yd Run (Erik Calvillo Kick)3–49
• Q2 1:09KENNIsaac Foster 44 Yd pass from Jonathan Murphy (Erik Calvillo Kick)3–42
• Q2 3:46KENNRowan Darnell 17 Yd pass from Jonathan Murphy (Erik Calvillo Kick)3–35
• Q2 10:02KENNMichael Benefield 29 Yd Run (Erik Calvillo Kick)3–28
• Q2 12:08VIRGAvery Burch 43 Yd Field Goal 3–21
• Q1 2:29KENNMichael Benefield 3 Yd Run (Erik Calvillo Kick)0–21
• Q1 6:22KENNJonathan Murphy 14 Yd Run (Erik Calvillo Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:48KENNMarkeith Montgomery 34 Yd Interception Return (Erik Calvillo Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

• VIRG played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and KENN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 3.4

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

VIRG aheadKENN ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = VIRG ahead, below = KENN ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

Leaders

Virginia Lynchburg

• PassCharles Brooks Jr. 10/18, 50 YDS, 1 INT
• RushJacob Walker 18 CAR, 70 YDS
• RecJacob Walker 3 REC, 28 YDS

Kennesaw State

• PassJonathan Murphy 8/10, 133 YDS, 2 TD
• RushMichael Benefield 13 CAR, 106 YDS, 2 TD
• RecIsaac Foster 2 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

32.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

109

Points / snap

0.61

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

KENN up 53 entering the 4th quarter. Across 45 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

KENN went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WGeorgia vs Florida State63-3WNorthern Arizona vs Lincoln (CA)66-6WIndiana vs Western Illinois77-3WNorth Alabama vs Utah Tech60-14WMercyhurst vs Lincoln (CA)66-0

Fourth downs

10 calls

Neither coaching staff gave up anything measurable.VIRG 7/8 · KENN 1/1 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Virginia Lynchburg vs. Kennesaw State?

Virginia Lynchburg 3, Kennesaw State 63.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (KENN) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

VIRG

KENN

28%

Success rate

69%

-0.73

EPA / pass

1.23

0.10

EPA / rush

0.64

27%

Early-down success

68%

16%

Pass success

64%

41%

Rush success

71%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

27%

Stuffed rush rate

8%

53%

Pass rate

18%

9.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

3.4

VIRG

9.2 yards to go on 3rd down

47 scrimmage snaps

KENN

3.4 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

VIRG		KENN
105	Total yards	538
50	Passing yards	156
55	Rushing yards	382
8	First downs	33
1-11	3rd down	7-8
1-1	4th down	0-1
10/18	Comp/Att	9/12
2.8	Yards per pass	13.0
2.0	Yards per rush	7.5
1	Turnovers	0
4-50	Penalties	8-89
26:57	Possession	33:03

Fourth downs

10 calls

VIRG

7/8 with the model

nothing given up

KENN

1/1 with the model

nothing given up

No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.

Every call, priced (10)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

VIRG 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →KENN 8/9 scoring drives

VIRGTD3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1

VIRGPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1

KENNTD11 pl, 86 yds· own 14Q1

VIRGPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 23Q1

KENNTD6 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q1

VIRGFG11 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q1

KENNTD4 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q2

VIRGPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 17Q2

KENNTD8 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q2

VIRGPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 10Q2

KENNTD5 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2

VIRGEND2 pl, 2 yds· own 42Q2

KENNTD7 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

VIRGPUNT6 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q3

KENNTD11 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q3

VIRGPUNT7 pl, 47 yds· own 6Q3

KENNDOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· own 13Q4

VIRGMISS4 pl, -15 yds· opp 19Q4

KENNTD7 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q4

VIRGEND3 pl, 23 yds· own 35Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:20KENNKenai Grier 17 Yd Run (Erik Calvillo Kick)3–63
• Q3 1:23KENNDJ Scott 1 Yd Run (Erik Calvillo Kick)3–56
• Q3 10:46KENNDavis Bryson 17 Yd Run (Erik Calvillo Kick)3–49
• Q2 1:09KENNIsaac Foster 44 Yd pass from Jonathan Murphy (Erik Calvillo Kick)3–42
• Q2 3:46KENNRowan Darnell 17 Yd pass from Jonathan Murphy (Erik Calvillo Kick)3–35
• Q2 10:02KENNMichael Benefield 29 Yd Run (Erik Calvillo Kick)3–28
• Q2 12:08VIRGAvery Burch 43 Yd Field Goal 3–21
• Q1 2:29KENNMichael Benefield 3 Yd Run (Erik Calvillo Kick)0–21
• Q1 6:22KENNJonathan Murphy 14 Yd Run (Erik Calvillo Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:48KENNMarkeith Montgomery 34 Yd Interception Return (Erik Calvillo Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →