Lincoln (CA) vs. Mercyhurst: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Lincoln (CA)0-9

00

Mercyhurst2-7

▸0066

Final

Saxon Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
LINC	0	0	0	0	0
MERC	14	32	7	13	66

LINCTeam statsMERC

214Total yards502

181Pass248

33Rush254

12First downs26

3-83rd down5-10

8Turnovers0

23:57Possession36:03

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:22MERCEthen Knox 29 Yd Run (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–66
• Q4 9:49MERCAustin Urena 29 Yd pass from Alex Gevaudan (Nathan Nagucki PAT failed)0–59
• Q3 2:50MERCJoe Kerbacher 14 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–53
• Q2 0:40MERCMike Pappas 8 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Chaz Davis Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–46
• Q2 4:45MERCRylan Davison 61 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–38
• Q2 7:28MERCJonathan Askew 2 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–31
• Q2 8:02MERCCameron Barmore 21 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–24
• Q2 11:06MERCNathan Nagucki 26 Yd Field Goal 0–17
• Q1 1:10MERCMike Pappas 3 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:15MERCCameron Barmore 28 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

• LINC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 33% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MERC 100%50%LINC 100%

Kickoff127 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MERC (top)LINC (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MERC 100%

Leaders

Lincoln (CA)

• PassJack Clavel 11/30, 181 YDS, 7 INT
• RushRashaan Woodland 12 CAR, 32 YDS
• RecTrey Dimmings 4 REC, 81 YDS

Mercyhurst

• PassAdam Urena 16/18, 215 YDS, 6 TD
• RushEthen Knox 7 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
• RecCam Barmore 5 REC, 87 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30.9sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

116

Points / snap

0.57

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MERC up 53 entering the 4th quarter. Across 46 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MERC went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKennesaw State vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg63-3WGeorgia vs Florida State63-3WNorthern Arizona vs Lincoln (CA)66-6WIndiana vs Western Illinois77-3WNorth Alabama vs Utah Tech60-14

Fourth downs

12 calls

MERC gave up 0.2 points to the model on fourth down.LINC 4/7 · MERC 4/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Lincoln (CA) vs. Mercyhurst?

Lincoln (CA) 0, Mercyhurst 66.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MERC) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

LINC

MERC

33%

Success rate

56%

-0.25

EPA / pass

0.91

-0.31

EPA / rush

0.24

33%

Early-down success

56%

37%

Pass success

54%

24%

Rush success

57%

14%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

24%

Stuffed rush rate

18%

67%

Pass rate

38%

6.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.3

LINC

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

52 scrimmage snaps

MERC

7.3 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

LINC		MERC
214	Total yards	502
181	Passing yards	248
33	Rushing yards	254
12	First downs	26
3-8	3rd down	5-10
0-1	4th down	2-2
11/30	Comp/Att	18/24
6.0	Yards per pass	10.3
1.8	Yards per rush	6.5
8	Turnovers	0
7-47	Penalties	8-90
23:57	Possession	36:03

Fourth downs

12 calls

LINC

4/7 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

MERC

4/5 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 9:49 MERC go for it on 4th & 4 at LINC 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.19 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

LINC 1/14 scoring drives← own end zone →MERC 9/13 scoring drives

MERCTD5 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q1

LINCINT3 pl, 14 yds· own 30Q1

MERCUncateg5 pl, -9 yds· opp 45Q1

LINCPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 24Q1

MERCTD9 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q1

LINCPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 10Q1

MERCTD1 pl, 21 yds· opp 21Q2

MERCTD1 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q2

LINCINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 33Q2

MERCFG5 pl, 8 yds· opp 24Q2

LINCDOWNS5 pl, 9 yds· own 12Q2

LINCTD3 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q2

LINCINT6 pl, 37 yds· own 11Q2

MERCTD8 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q2

LINCEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 23Q2

LINCFUM5 pl, 74 yds· own 10Q3

MERCPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 18Q3

LINCPUNT4 pl, 0 yds· opp 45Q3

MERCTD9 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q3

LINCINT6 pl, 49 yds· own 21Q3

LINCINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 33Q4

MERCTD10 pl, 94 yds· own 6Q4

LINCINT6 pl, 55 yds· own 16Q4

MERCPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 6Q4

MERCTD3 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q4

LINCINT5 pl, 15 yds· own 24Q4

MERCUncateg1 pl, 0 yds· opp 35Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:22MERCEthen Knox 29 Yd Run (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–66
• Q4 9:49MERCAustin Urena 29 Yd pass from Alex Gevaudan (Nathan Nagucki PAT failed)0–59
• Q3 2:50MERCJoe Kerbacher 14 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–53
• Q2 0:40MERCMike Pappas 8 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Chaz Davis Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–46
• Q2 4:45MERCRylan Davison 61 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–38
• Q2 7:28MERCJonathan Askew 2 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–31
• Q2 8:02MERCCameron Barmore 21 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–24
• Q2 11:06MERCNathan Nagucki 26 Yd Field Goal 0–17
• Q1 1:10MERCMike Pappas 3 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:15MERCCameron Barmore 28 Yd pass from Adam Urena (Nathan Nagucki Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →