Youngstown State vs. Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats


YOUNTeam statsUK
- Q4 5:29UKAdam Zouagui 28 Yd Field Goal 13–45
- Q4 12:48UKKenny Darby 37 Yd pass from Kenny Minchey (Adam Zouagui Kick)13–42
- Q3 3:41YOUNJaden Gilbert 9 Yd Run (Andrew Lastovka PAT failed)13–35
- Q3 8:19UKPrince Jean 26 Yd pass from Kenny Minchey (Adam Zouagui Kick)7–35
- Q2 0:20YOUNLynn Wyche-El 6 Yd pass from Beau Brungard (Andrew Lastovka Kick)7–28
- Q2 1:51UKWillie Rodriguez 2 Yd pass from CJ Baxter (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–28
- Q2 11:30UKMikkel Skinner 10 Yd pass from Kenny Minchey (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:25UKCJ Baxter 5 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:29UKCJ Baxter 15 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UK played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and YOUN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.9 vs 3rd & 5.5
Kentucky won 45-13 on Kenny Minchey and 13 explosive plays; the pass rush the 4-2-5 was built for is the part the box score cannot settle.
- PassBeau Brungard 23/35, 243 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBeau Brungard 12 CAR, 29 YDS
- RecLynn Wyche-El 7 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKenny Minchey 18/27, 301 YDS, 4 TD
- RushJason Patterson 11 CAR, 78 YDS
- RecKenny Darby 3 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUK up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Youngstown State vs. Kentucky?
Youngstown State 13, Kentucky 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UK) was correct.
| YOUN | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 305 | Total yards | 506 |
| 246 | Passing yards | 301 |
| 59 | Rushing yards | 205 |
| 20 | First downs | 24 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 3-8 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 24/38 | Comp/Att | 18/27 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 11.1 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-28 | Penalties | 6-70 |
| 30:08 | Possession | 29:52 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:01 UK punt on 4th & 2 at UK 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:29UKAdam Zouagui 28 Yd Field Goal 13–45
- Q4 12:48UKKenny Darby 37 Yd pass from Kenny Minchey (Adam Zouagui Kick)13–42
- Q3 3:41YOUNJaden Gilbert 9 Yd Run (Andrew Lastovka PAT failed)13–35
- Q3 8:19UKPrince Jean 26 Yd pass from Kenny Minchey (Adam Zouagui Kick)7–35
- Q2 0:20YOUNLynn Wyche-El 6 Yd pass from Beau Brungard (Andrew Lastovka Kick)7–28
- Q2 1:51UKWillie Rodriguez 2 Yd pass from CJ Baxter (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–28
- Q2 11:30UKMikkel Skinner 10 Yd pass from Kenny Minchey (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:25UKCJ Baxter 5 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:29UKCJ Baxter 15 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects UK -24.4 (92% to win) — 2.4 points clear of UK's market line of -22. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Ahmad Breaux got one sack; the other is contested
Kentucky won 45-13 on Kenny Minchey and 13 explosive plays; the pass rush the 4-2-5 was built for is the part the box score cannot settle.
Kenny Minchey figured in 10 of Kentucky's 13 explosive plays
Kentucky produced 13 plays of 15 yards or more to Youngstown State's six, and Kenny Minchey figured in 10 of them. He threw for 301 yards on 27 attempts and four touchdowns to four different receivers. The most valuable snap of the night came on third and 16 at Q4 07:46, short left to Brock Coffman, who caught it at the Kentucky 41 and got out of bounds at the Youngstown State 17, a 38-yard gain worth better than four points of expected value and Coffman's only catch.
C.J. Baxter, a transfer from Texas, scored twice before the first quarter ended, 15 yards up the middle at Q1 11:36 and 5 yards to the left at Q1 06:28, and finished with 48 rushing yards on nine carries. Kentucky scored on 64% of its 11 drives, Youngstown State on 22% of its nine. The 45 points are the most in a Kentucky head coach's debut since A.D. Kirwan beat Maryville 46-7 in 1938, per UK Athletics, this time against an FCS opponent.
Stein recruited Cutter Boley to Oregon, then replaced him
Mark Stoops was fired on Dec. 1 after going 5-7 in 2025 and 4-8 in 2024, a run that ended with a 41-0 home loss to Louisville, per ESPN. Cutter Boley entered the portal as soon as it opened and committed to Arizona State on Jan. 4, per Sports Illustrated, which puts his 2025 Kentucky season at 2,160 passing yards. On Kentucky's opening Saturday he threw for 387 yards and six touchdowns in a little over a half of a 70-7 win over Morgan State.
Stein addressed the exit in January: "Wish him nothing but the best, number one. Great person. I obviously recruited him prior out to Oregon," per A Sea of Blue. 247Sports framed the split as a case where both men can be right. The sequence is less generous than that. Boley left the week the job changed hands, and Kentucky's first move at the position was Arizona State's Sam Leavitt, who took a visit to LSU instead. Minchey committed to Nebraska and reversed a day later, per ESPN.
Read that order and Stein did not lose a quarterback so much as decline to build around the one he had recruited. What he wanted was visible Saturday: throws on schedule out of the shotgun, spread across four scorers. The 26-yard touchdown to Prince Jean at Q3 08:26, the 28-yard catch by Mikkel Skinner at Q4 09:37 and Kenny Darby's 37-yard touchdown at Q4 12:56, part of 74 yards on three catches, all came from the same look.
One touchdown in that count is wrong in the feeds. ESPN's play-by-play and scoring summary carry the Q2 01:51 score as "Willie Rodriguez 2 Yd pass from CJ Baxter," and anything built off ESPN reproduces it. UK Athletics' official recap says Minchey found Rodriguez for a two-yard touchdown on fourth and goal, after Ty Bryant recovered a muffed punt at the Youngstown State 28, for a 28-0 lead. Rodriguez caught three of five targets for 46 yards.
No version of the box score credits Kentucky's edge rushers
Kentucky announced Jay Bateman as Stein's first defensive coordinator on Dec. 17, hired from Texas A&M, where he was defensive coordinator for two seasons, replacing Brad White, who left for Florida, per the Associated Press. The base moved from White's 3-4 to Bateman's 4-2-5 in an effort to generate quarterback pressure and sacks, as the Messenger-Inquirer reported it. That rationale is the paper's reporting rather than a quote from Bateman or from Stein.
The same paper puts Bateman's Texas A&M defense at 43 sacks last season and Kentucky at 25 in 2025. Two qualifiers ride with the 43. Dave Campbell's Texas Football reported that Mike Elko took over more of the defensive play-calling in 2025 after Bateman's calls drew criticism, and a season total and a single afternoon do not share a unit, with no per-game rate for either on the record. Bateman in August: "My mindset historically has been a little more aggressive. It's been a little bit more pressure."
Ahmad Breaux, a defensive tackle, had a sack and a tackle for loss out of Anwar Stewart's line room, the only position group Stein retained. The second sack is contested: Wildcats Wire credits linebacker Devin Smith and ESPN's box score credits Cedric Works, while Vance Meek's Sept. 6 column calls Breaux's the game's only sack. "The edge rush group, in particular, has to find some consistent ability to get pressure," Meek wrote. No version credits Tony Washington Jr.'s edges.
Beau Brungard's printed line is 12 carries for 29 yards, and Kentucky's own release called it 29 net rushing yards. College scoring charges sack losses to rushing, so both sacks sit inside those carries, and ESPN's Tim Griffin has written that including them skews the picture of how a team ran or stopped the run. Every downstream recap dropped the word net. On3 and Kentucky Sports Radio framed the night as Kentucky taking away his rushing game, allowing him only 29 yards.
"For the most part, we stopped him running the ball," Stein said, per NKyTribune. His designed runs were fewer carries for more yards than the printed line shows, and Sports Info Solutions notes that scrambles stopped at or past the line also land in a college quarterback's rushing column without ever being counted as sacks. A Sea of Blue reached the front first and harder, writing that there "was no push upfront whatsoever." This finding confirms that read; it does not correct it.
Sports Illustrated credited the linebackers instead, counting Bo Barnes at seven tackles with four tackles for loss and a pass breakup and Grant Godfrey at seven tackles with two quarterback hits. Behind them, true freshman Isaiah McMillian started opposite Grant Grayton because Terhyon Nichols, Hasaan Sykes and lineman Malachi Wood were held out for precaution, per A Sea of Blue. Lynn Wyche-El caught seven of his 11 targets for 111 yards against that group, including the 6-yard touchdown at Q2 00:24.
Alex Afari Jr. was not in the case that saved his season
Judge Brian Edwards of Jefferson Circuit Court granted a temporary restraining order on Aug. 21 to 13 athletes challenging the NCAA's age-based eligibility model, per the Courier Journal, and Afari was not among them. He joined on Sept. 2, when Edwards admitted more than two dozen additional athletes and extended the order to cover them. The Kentucky Court of Appeals denied the NCAA's emergency motion on Friday, Sept. 4, sending the matter to a three-judge panel. He recorded no statistic in his 49th appearance.
What travels to Alabama is one agreed-on sack
Games since 2019 whose shape most resembles this one — matched on how close the margin was, how far the result ran from the spread, and how each offense performed against its own season norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Alabama comes to Kroger Field on Sept. 12, and both corners practiced this week. "They practiced today, so that's my expectation," Stein said. The comparable games printed at the top of this piece were selected on close margins and suppressed offenses, which is not a 45-13 afternoon, so read them as background and not as a line on Alabama. What actually travels is smaller and harder to argue with. Breaux got his. Nobody agrees on who got the other one.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →
