Colgate vs. Villanova: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Colgate0-1

0019

Villanova

▸0042

Final

Villanova Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
COLG	3	7	3	6	19
VILL	14	14	7	7	42

COLGTeam statsVILL

258Total yards462

225Pass310

33Rush152

15First downs15

5-153rd down6-11

1Turnovers1

28:22Possession31:38

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:07VILLDeeWil Barlee 28 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)19–42
• Q4 11:47COLGMichael Brescia 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)19–35
• Q3 2:09COLGJacob Jaworski 33 Yd Field Goal 13–35
• Q3 12:41VILLAntonio Johnson 1 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)10–35
• Q2 2:59VILLRayjuon Pringle 67 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)10–28
• Q2 5:11VILLConnor Watkins 1 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)10–21
• Q2 8:57COLGTreyvhon Saunders 23 Yd pass from Michael Brescia (Jacob Jaworski Kick)10–14
• Q1 1:09VILLConnor Watkins 1 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)3–14
• Q1 5:10COLGJacob Jaworski 21 Yd Field Goal 3–7
• Q1 8:39VILLJalen Jackson 25 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

• COLG played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and VILL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.0 vs 3rd & 7.9

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

VILL 100%50%COLG 100%

Kickoff132 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

VILL (top)COLG (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: VILL 100%

Leaders

Colgate

• PassMichael Brescia 16/30, 225 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushJaedon Henry 11 CAR, 15 YDS
• RecTreyvhon Saunders 6 REC, 132 YDS, 1 TD

Villanova

• PassConnor Watkins 8/11, 310 YDS, 2 TD
• RushJalen Jackson 12 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
• RecRayjuon Pringle 3 REC, 168 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

31.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

114

Points / snap

0.54

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

VILL up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 821 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

VILL went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUSC vs San José State56-28WFurman vs The Citadel28-14WBoise State vs Wyoming32-7WFresno State vs Sacramento State46-30WHawai'i vs Northern Iowa36-7

Fourth downs

13 calls

COLG gave up 0.3 points to the model on fourth down.COLG 7/8 · VILL 4/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Colgate vs. Villanova?

Colgate 19, Villanova 42.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (VILL) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

COLG

VILL

24%

Success rate

40%

0.12

EPA / pass

1.40

-0.17

EPA / rush

0.20

22%

Early-down success

35%

24%

Pass success

40%

25%

Rush success

41%

8%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

27%

55%

Pass rate

29%

11.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.9

COLG

11.0 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

VILL

7.9 yards to go on 3rd down

52 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

COLG		VILL
258	Total yards	462
225	Passing yards	310
33	Rushing yards	152
15	First downs	15
5-15	3rd down	6-11
0-0	4th down	1-1
16/30	Comp/Att	8/11
7.5	Yards per pass	28.2
1.1	Yards per rush	3.7
1	Turnovers	1
7-42	Penalties	6-51
28:22	Possession	31:38

Fourth downs

13 calls

COLG

7/8 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

VILL

4/4 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q1 5:10 COLG field goal on 4th & 4 at VILL 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.34 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

COLG 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →VILL 6/11 scoring drives

COLGPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 22Q1

VILLTD7 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q1

COLGFG8 pl, 71 yds· own 25Q1

VILLTD7 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q1

COLGTD15 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

VILLTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

COLGPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2

VILLTD1 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2

COLGPUNT4 pl, 12 yds· own 31Q2

VILLPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 4Q2

COLGINT2 pl, -5 yds· opp 30Q2

VILLEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 29Q2

VILLTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

COLGPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

VILLPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 29Q3

COLGPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3

COLGFG11 pl, 27 yds· opp 43Q3

VILLPUNT6 pl, 0 yds· own 8Q3

COLGTD3 pl, 47 yds· opp 47Q4

VILLTD7 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q4

COLGPUNT6 pl, 1 yds· own 27Q4

VILLEND6 pl, 10 yds· own 27Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:07VILLDeeWil Barlee 28 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)19–42
• Q4 11:47COLGMichael Brescia 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)19–35
• Q3 2:09COLGJacob Jaworski 33 Yd Field Goal 13–35
• Q3 12:41VILLAntonio Johnson 1 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)10–35
• Q2 2:59VILLRayjuon Pringle 67 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)10–28
• Q2 5:11VILLConnor Watkins 1 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)10–21
• Q2 8:57COLGTreyvhon Saunders 23 Yd pass from Michael Brescia (Jacob Jaworski Kick)10–14
• Q1 1:09VILLConnor Watkins 1 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)3–14
• Q1 5:10COLGJacob Jaworski 21 Yd Field Goal 3–7
• Q1 8:39VILLJalen Jackson 25 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →