Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (FLA Elo 1593, FAU Elo 1178) plus home-field advantage. That projects FLA -16.6 (89% to win) — 9.9 points of value on FAU versus the market line of -26.5.
Availability-Adjusted Projection
Availability impact
Model estimateNo ruled-out starters
- Out Kahleil Jackson (WR)not quantified
Estimates from our player value-over-replacement model (reliable for QBs; softer elsewhere) — a calibrated prior, not a market or backtested figure. Context only, not a betting edge.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: FLA
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- FLA pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. FAU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge FAU.
- FLA rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. FAU rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge FAU.
- FAU rush offense (0.04 PPA) vs. FLA rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge FLA.
FAQ
Who will win Florida Atlantic vs. Florida?
Gridpex's model favors Florida with a 89% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Florida Atlantic vs. Florida?
The model projects Florida by 16.6.
What time is Florida Atlantic vs. Florida and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 5, 11:45 PM on SEC Network, at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Florida at 89% to win, projecting Florida by 16.6.