Long Island University vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LONGTeam statsKU
- Q4 1:56LONGWill Johnson 39 Yd Field Goal 6–51
- Q4 7:22KUDonald Collier 3 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)3–51
- Q4 10:09LONGWill Johnson 39 Yd Field Goal 3–44
- Q4 14:19KUMicah Johnson 8 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)0–44
- Q3 8:13KUTate Nagy 6 Yd pass from Isaiah Marshall (Martin Connington Kick)0–37
- Q2 0:57KUNik McMillan 19 Yd pass from Isaiah Marshall (Martin Connington Kick)0–30
- Q2 3:50KUJalen Dupree 3 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)0–23
- Q2 6:10KUYasin Willis 10 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)0–16
- Q2 9:46KUMartin Connington 32 Yd Field Goal 0–9
- Q1 5:59KUYasin Willis 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–6
How it was won
Kansas ran at a 61.3% success rate and +1.12 EPA per pass, while Long Island managed just 25.5% and +0.15, widening the gap.
Key playmakers
Isaiah Marshall’s 14‑of‑19, 246‑yard passing day and Yasin Willis’s 72‑yard, two‑touchdown rush powered Kansas, while Nik McMillan hauled 130 receiving yards.
Fourth‑down decisions
Kansas converted all four fourth‑down tries without cost, whereas Long Island’s punt on 4th‑and‑2 at the 67 cost about 0.25 points.
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LONG played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and KU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 6.9
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
Long Island University never had a foothold. Kansas rolls past Long Island University, 51-6 at Memorial Stadium. Kansas led from start to finish and never let Long Island University within striking distance. Isaiah Marshall threw for 246 yards on 19 attempts with two touchdowns and ran seven times for 49 yards.
- PassLuca Stanzani 10/19, 111 YDS
- RushLuca Stanzani 12 CAR, 20 YDS
- RecJosiah Brown 3 REC, 47 YDS
- PassIsaiah Marshall 14/19, 246 YDS, 2 TD
- RushYasin Willis 11 CAR, 72 YDS, 2 TD
- RecNik McMillan 6 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKU up 37 entering the 4th quarter. Across 313 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Long Island University vs. Kansas?
Long Island University 6, Kansas 51.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KU) was correct.
| LONG | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 146 | Total yards | 613 |
| 111 | Passing yards | 336 |
| 35 | Rushing yards | 277 |
| 11 | First downs | 29 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 8-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 10/20 | Comp/Att | 18/25 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 13.4 |
| 1.1 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-40 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 26:54 | Possession | 33:06 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:38 LONG punt on 4th & 2 at LONG 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:56LONGWill Johnson 39 Yd Field Goal 6–51
- Q4 7:22KUDonald Collier 3 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)3–51
- Q4 10:09LONGWill Johnson 39 Yd Field Goal 3–44
- Q4 14:19KUMicah Johnson 8 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)0–44
- Q3 8:13KUTate Nagy 6 Yd pass from Isaiah Marshall (Martin Connington Kick)0–37
- Q2 0:57KUNik McMillan 19 Yd pass from Isaiah Marshall (Martin Connington Kick)0–30
- Q2 3:50KUJalen Dupree 3 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)0–23
- Q2 6:10KUYasin Willis 10 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)0–16
- Q2 9:46KUMartin Connington 32 Yd Field Goal 0–9
- Q1 5:59KUYasin Willis 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects KU -41.9 (99% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Isaiah Marshall had a hand in eight of Kansas's twelve explosive plays
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
The big plays only went one way
Kansas produced 12 plays of 15+ yards to Long Island University's 1, led by Isaiah Marshall (involved in 8), Nik McMillan (involved in 5) and Cole Ballard (involved in 2). Kansas scored on 80% of its drives to Long Island University's 18%: Isaiah Marshall (12 pts), Nik McMillan (6 pts) and Yasin Willis (12 pts). Stacked together, it was never close.
Who carried it
Isaiah Marshall threw for 246 yards on 19 attempts with two touchdowns and ran seven times for 49 yards, including two of them from inside the 20, five third-down conversions and a hand in eight plays of 15 yards or more. Nik McMillan caught six passes for 130 yards, one of them for a touchdown, including that score from inside the 20, two third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Yasin Willis ran 11 times for 72 yards and two scores — two of them from inside the 20. For Long Island University, Josiah Brown caught three passes for 47 yards. Luca Stanzani threw for 111 yards on 19 attempts and ran 12 times for 20 yards, with two third-down conversions. Trey Lathan was the disruptive one for Kansas: 1 sack, 1 TFL, 3 tackles.
What Long Island University has to fix
The problems had names: Sam Slade (1 lost fumble).
Who got home
Three names to keep: Trey Lathan (1 sack, 1 TFL, 3 tackles) for Kansas, Joseph Credit (1 sack, 1 TFL, 2 tackles) for Kansas and David Santiago (0.5 TFL, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble rec, 2.5 tackles) for Kansas. 0 of Kansas's 3 sacks came from the defensive line — a change from the 67% it had averaged over the previous 9 seasons.
The way it played out
Kansas struck first through Yasin Willis, led 30-0 at the half and the final points came on a late field goal by Will Johnson.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Business handled for Kansas. The question now is whether the opponent told us anything. Will Johnson was responsible for 6 of Long Island University's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →