BYU vs. West Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BYUTeam statsWVU
- Q4 6:24BYUAidan Robbins 10 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)7–37
- Q3 1:09WVUKole Taylor 43 Yd pass from Garrett Greene (Michael Hayes Kick)0–37
- Q3 10:35WVUMichael Hayes 23 Yd Field Goal 0–30
- Q2 0:00WVUMichael Hayes 22 Yd Field Goal 0–27
- Q2 2:18WVUPreston Fox 12 Yd pass from Garrett Greene (Michael Hayes Kick)0–24
- Q2 10:47WVUMichael Hayes 46 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 6:17WVUCJ Donaldson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:59WVUCJ Donaldson Jr. 2 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJake Retzlaff 24/42, 210 YDS
- RushAidan Robbins 10 CAR, 37 YDS, 1 TD
- RecParker Kingston 6 REC, 57 YDS
- PassGarrett Greene 12/24, 205 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJahiem White 16 CAR, 146 YDS
- RecDevin Carter 3 REC, 56 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWVU up 37 entering the 4th quarter. Across 311 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:59WVU +17%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)
- Q1 6:17WVU +13%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of BYU vs. West Virginia?
BYU 7, West Virginia 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WVU) was correct.
| BYU | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| 277 | Total yards | 567 |
| 210 | Passing yards | 231 |
| 67 | Rushing yards | 336 |
| 20 | First downs | 30 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 24/42 | Comp/Att | 16/28 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 7.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-98 | Penalties | 10-71 |
| 24:33 | Possession | 35:27 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:04 WVU punt on 4th & 3 at WVU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:24BYUAidan Robbins 10 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)7–37
- Q3 1:09WVUKole Taylor 43 Yd pass from Garrett Greene (Michael Hayes Kick)0–37
- Q3 10:35WVUMichael Hayes 23 Yd Field Goal 0–30
- Q2 0:00WVUMichael Hayes 22 Yd Field Goal 0–27
- Q2 2:18WVUPreston Fox 12 Yd pass from Garrett Greene (Michael Hayes Kick)0–24
- Q2 10:47WVUMichael Hayes 46 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 6:17WVUCJ Donaldson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:59WVUCJ Donaldson Jr. 2 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WVU Elo 1499, BYU Elo 1478 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WVU -3.2 (60% to win) — 9.3 points clear of BYU's market line of -12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BYU | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.3 (#90) | CORE overall | +5.4 (#43) |
| -9 / -3 | offense / defense | +5 / -0 |
| 1.29 | points / drive | 2.69 |
| 2.22 | allowed / drive | 2.22 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →