Mississippi Valley State vs. Murray State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Mississippi Valley State0-2

08

Murray State0-1

▸0059

Final

Roy Stewart Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MISS	0	8	0	0	8
MURR	21	10	14	14	59

MISSTeam statsMURR

220Total yards440

163Pass221

57Rush219

16First downs23

7-193rd down14-18

3Turnovers0

31:53Possession28:07

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:54MURRKevin Emmanuel 5 Yd Run (James London Kick)8–59
• Q4 11:04MURRMarcus Floyd Jr. 15 Yd pass from Jameson Holcomb (James London Kick)8–52
• Q3 8:43MURRKade Neely 38 Yd pass from Jayden Johannsen (James London Kick)8–45
• Q3 13:06MURRKywon Morgan 45 Yd Run (James London Kick)8–38
• Q2 0:21MISSKerrick Ross 15 Yd pass from Ty'Jarian Williams (Nicholas Stephens Run for Two-Point Conversion)8–31
• Q2 3:38MURRJames London 54 Yd Field Goal 0–31
• Q2 6:36MURRJawaun Northington 5 Yd Run (James London Kick)0–28
• Q1 1:44MURRJayden Johannsen 5 Yd Run (James London Kick)0–21
• Q1 11:15MURRTyson Meiguez 3 Yd Fumble Return (James London Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:52MURRJustice Hill 36 Yd pass from Jayden Johannsen (James London Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

MURR −14.5

Against the number

MURR covered

line MURR −14.5

What the numbers say

• MISS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MURR did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 4.8

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MURR 100%50%MISS 100%

Kickoff159 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MURR (top)MISS (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MURR 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

MURR −14.5

Closing total

48.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MISS 8 – 59 MURR

Leaders

Mississippi Valley State

• PassTy'Jarian Williams 11/23, 129 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushJakobe Thomas 4 CAR, 26 YDS
• RecKerrick Ross 3 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD

Murray State

• PassJayden Johannsen 9/19, 169 YDS, 2 TD
• RushKywon Morgan 8 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJustin Hill 3 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

144

Points / snap

0.47

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MURR up 37 entering the 4th quarter. Across 310 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MURR went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WEastern Washington vs Cal Poly48-16WWest Virginia vs BYU37-7WFurman vs VMI37-3WMiami vs Florida A&M56-9WUNLV vs Utah Tech72-14

Fourth downs

14 calls

MISS gave up 2.3 points to the model on fourth down.MISS 6/10 · MURR 4/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Mississippi Valley State vs. Murray State?

Mississippi Valley State 8, Murray State 59.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MURR) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MISS

MURR

27%

Success rate

50%

0.04

EPA / pass

0.65

-0.14

EPA / rush

0.24

22%

Early-down success

41%

23%

Pass success

50%

31%

Rush success

50%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

11%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

20%

47%

Pass rate

34%

9.3

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.8

MISS

9.3 yards to go on 3rd down

74 scrimmage snaps

MURR

4.8 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MISS		MURR
220	Total yards	440
163	Passing yards	221
57	Rushing yards	219
16	First downs	23
7-19	3rd down	14-18
2-5	4th down	0-0
14/32	Comp/Att	12/24
5.1	Yards per pass	9.2
1.3	Yards per rush	4.9
3	Turnovers	0
3-17	Penalties	5-37
31:53	Possession	28:07

Fourth downs

14 calls

MISS

6/10 with the model

−2.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

MURR

4/4 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q2 12:16 MISS go for it on 4th & 10 at MURR 19. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.92 points.

Every call, priced (14)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MISS 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →MURR 8/12 scoring drives

MISSPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 13Q1

MURRTD3 pl, 40 yds· opp 40Q1

MISSTD5 pl, -7 yds· own 10Q1

MISSPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1

MURRTD17 pl, 94 yds· own 6Q1

MISSDOWNS12 pl, 59 yds· own 25Q1

MURRPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 16Q2

MISSFUM6 pl, 14 yds· own 14Q2

MURRTD6 pl, 28 yds· opp 28Q2

MISSPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q2

MURRFG5 pl, 14 yds· midfieldQ2

MISSTD13 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2

MURREND1 pl, 6 yds· own 27Q2

MURRTD4 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q3

MISSDOWNS7 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q3

MURRTD6 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q3

MISSPUNT8 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q3

MURRPUNT7 pl, 29 yds· own 5Q3

MISSDOWNS8 pl, 39 yds· own 18Q3

MURRTD5 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q4

MISSINT3 pl, 2 yds· own 12Q4

MURRPUNT3 pl, -19 yds· opp 25Q4

MISSPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 17Q4

MURRTD10 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q4

MISSEND3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:54MURRKevin Emmanuel 5 Yd Run (James London Kick)8–59
• Q4 11:04MURRMarcus Floyd Jr. 15 Yd pass from Jameson Holcomb (James London Kick)8–52
• Q3 8:43MURRKade Neely 38 Yd pass from Jayden Johannsen (James London Kick)8–45
• Q3 13:06MURRKywon Morgan 45 Yd Run (James London Kick)8–38
• Q2 0:21MISSKerrick Ross 15 Yd pass from Ty'Jarian Williams (Nicholas Stephens Run for Two-Point Conversion)8–31
• Q2 3:38MURRJames London 54 Yd Field Goal 0–31
• Q2 6:36MURRJawaun Northington 5 Yd Run (James London Kick)0–28
• Q1 1:44MURRJayden Johannsen 5 Yd Run (James London Kick)0–21
• Q1 11:15MURRTyson Meiguez 3 Yd Fumble Return (James London Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:52MURRJustice Hill 36 Yd pass from Jayden Johannsen (James London Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →