Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (MSU Elo 1409, TOL Elo 1646) plus home-field advantage. That projects MSU +7 (30% to win) — 17.5 points of value on TOL versus the market line of -10.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: TOL · 46 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- MSU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. TOL pass defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge MSU.
- MSU rush offense (0.06 PPA) vs. TOL rush defense (-0.01 allowed) — edge MSU.
- TOL pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. MSU pass defense (0.32 allowed) — edge MSU.
FAQ
Who will win Toledo vs. Michigan State?
Gridpex's model favors Toledo with a 70% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Toledo vs. Michigan State?
The model projects Toledo by 7.0.
What time is Toledo vs. Michigan State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 AM on FS1, at Spartan Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Toledo at 70% to win, projecting Toledo by 7.0. That's 46 points off the market line — there may be value. Where's the disagreement?