Maine vs. App State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MAINTeam statsAPP
- Q4 2:12APPJames London 32 Yd Field Goal 3–55
- Q4 10:33APPJackson Grier 28 Yd Run (Andrew Cummings Kick)3–52
- Q4 13:25APPNate Branch 36 Yd Run (James London Kick)3–45
- Q3 0:51MAINSamuel Tremblay 40 Yd Field Goal 3–38
- Q3 9:14APPJaquari Lewis 12 Yd Run (James London Kick)0–38
- Q2 0:07APPSam Pickett III 7 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (James London Kick)0–31
- Q2 4:18APPSam Pickett III 14 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (James London Kick)0–24
- Q2 9:32APPDarrin Fugitt 5 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (James London Kick)0–17
- Q2 14:15APPJames London 31 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 6:10APPTreyaun Webb 2 Yd Run (James London Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MAIN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and APP did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 5.6
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
This one was over early. App State runs away from Maine, 55-3 at Kidd Brewer Stadium. App State led from start to finish and never let Maine within striking distance. Malachi Singleton threw for 291 yards on 24 attempts with three touchdowns and lost 9 yards on five carries.
- PassEddie Buehler 18/32, 198 YDS, 2 INT
- RushRashawn Marshall 13 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecCorey Rideout 1 REC, 47 YDS
- PassMalachi Singleton 22/24, 291 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJaquari Lewis 11 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSam Pickett III 5 REC, 76 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAPP up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:10APP +9%
Shotgun #4 T.Webb rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MNE00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Maine vs. App State?
Maine 3, App State 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (APP) was correct.
| MAIN | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 250 | Total yards | 647 |
| 198 | Passing yards | 348 |
| 52 | Rushing yards | 299 |
| 12 | First downs | 34 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 2-7 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 18/32 | Comp/Att | 29/33 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 10.5 |
| 1.9 | Yards per rush | 7.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 26:51 | Possession | 33:09 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:57 MAIN go for it on 4th & 12 at APP 30. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.66 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:12APPJames London 32 Yd Field Goal 3–55
- Q4 10:33APPJackson Grier 28 Yd Run (Andrew Cummings Kick)3–52
- Q4 13:25APPNate Branch 36 Yd Run (James London Kick)3–45
- Q3 0:51MAINSamuel Tremblay 40 Yd Field Goal 3–38
- Q3 9:14APPJaquari Lewis 12 Yd Run (James London Kick)0–38
- Q2 0:07APPSam Pickett III 7 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (James London Kick)0–31
- Q2 4:18APPSam Pickett III 14 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (James London Kick)0–24
- Q2 9:32APPDarrin Fugitt 5 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (James London Kick)0–17
- Q2 14:15APPJames London 31 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 6:10APPTreyaun Webb 2 Yd Run (James London Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects APP -16.7 (84% to win) — 4.3 points clear of MAIN's market line of -21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
App State runs away from Maine, 55-3
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
One team finished its drives
App State scored on 90% of its drives to Maine's 9%: Malachi Singleton (18 pts), Sam Pickett III (12 pts) and Nate Branch (6 pts). App State produced 13 plays of 15+ yards to Maine's 6, chiefly Malachi Singleton (involved in 6), Henry Hasselbeck (involved in 3) and Sam Pickett III (involved in 2). Stacked together, it was never close.
The names on it
Malachi Singleton threw for 291 yards on 24 attempts with three touchdowns and lost 9 yards on five carries — three of them from inside the 20 and a hand in six plays of 15 yards or more. Sam Pickett III caught five passes for 76 yards, two of them for touchdowns, with two of them from inside the 20. Nate Branch ran two times for 44 yards and one score and caught five passes for 55 yards. For Maine, Eddie Buehler threw for 198 yards on 32 attempts and lost 15 yards on two carries, with five third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Rashawn Marshall ran 13 times for 37 yards. Ty'ee Stephens caught two passes for 29 yards. Colton Phares was the disruptive one for App State: 1 INT, 1 PBU, 2 tackles.
What Maine has to fix
The problems had names: Eddie Buehler (2 interceptions).
Who got home
Three names to keep, all for App State: Colton Phares (1 INT, 1 PBU, 2 tackles), Caleb Pitts (1 INT) and Caleb Sandstrom (1 sack, 1.5 TFLs, 1.5 tackles).
The order of events
App State struck first through Treyaun Webb, led 31-0 at the half and App State got the final points on a late field goal by James London.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Business handled for App State. The question now is whether the opponent told us anything.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →