Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (STAN Elo 1335, MIA Elo 2014) plus home-field advantage. That projects STAN +27.7 (2% to win) — 5.2 points of value on MIA versus the market line of +22.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: MIA · 49 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- MIA rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. STAN rush defense (-0.02 allowed) — edge MIA.
- MIA pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. STAN pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge MIA.
- STAN pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. MIA pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge STAN.
FAQ
Who will win Miami vs. Stanford?
Gridpex's model favors Miami with a 98% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Miami vs. Stanford?
The model projects Miami by 27.7.
What time is Miami vs. Stanford and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 5, 1:00 AM on ESPN, at Stanford Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Miami at 98% to win, projecting Miami by 27.7. That's 49 points off the market line — there may be value. Where's the disagreement?