Weber State vs. Northwestern State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Weber State0-1

▸0039

Northwestern State0-2

00

Final

Harry Turpin Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
WEBE	10	17	9	3	39
NORT	0	0	0	0	0

WEBETeam statsNORT

433Total yards157

327Pass73

106Rush84

20First downs9

3-153rd down2-15

1Turnovers1

30:27Possession29:33

Scoring plays

• Q4 10:53WEBESloan Calder 20 Yd Field Goal 39–0
• Q3 7:57WEBETeam Safety 36–0
• Q3 12:14WEBEJayleen Record 33 Yd pass from Richie Munoz (Sloan Calder Kick)34–0
• Q2 2:40WEBEJaden Thrower 17 Yd pass from Richie Munoz (Sloan Calder Kick)27–0
• Q2 5:28WEBESloan Calder 28 Yd Field Goal 20–0
• Q2 10:47WEBEDamon Bankston 7 Yd Run (Sloan Calder Kick)17–0
• Q1 0:19WEBEJacob Sharp 35 Yd pass from Richie Munoz (Sloan Calder Kick)10–0
• Q1 4:22WEBEKyle Thompson 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Market line

WEBE −31.5

Against the number

WEBE covered

line WEBE −31.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NORT 100%50%WEBE 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

NORT (top)WEBE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NORT 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

WEBE −31.5

Closing total

55.5

Model line

—

Actual result

WEBE 39 – 0 NORT

Leaders

Weber State

• PassRichie Munoz 19/31, 327 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
• RushDamon Bankston 10 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJacob Sharp 8 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD

Northwestern State

• PassJ.T. Fayard 13/24, 68 YDS
• RushKolbe Burrell 5 CAR, 60 YDS
• RecTwon Hines 3 REC, 27 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.6sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

135

Points / snap

0.29

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

WEBE up 36 entering the 4th quarter. Across 336 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

WEBE went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WMontana vs Utah Tech43-13WTexas State vs Jackson State77-34WLiberty vs Old Dominion39-10WLouisiana vs Arkansas State55-19WWisconsin vs Purdue52-6

Fourth downs

24 calls

WEBE gave up 1.2 points to the model on fourth down.WEBE 8/10 · NORT 10/12 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Weber State vs. Northwestern State?

Weber State 39, Northwestern State 0.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked NORT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

WEBE

NORT

41%

Success rate

33%

0.34

EPA / pass

-0.22

-0.04

EPA / rush

0.03

47%

Early-down success

36%

42%

Pass success

25%

40%

Rush success

41%

16%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

5%

3%

Stuffed rush rate

3%

51%

Pass rate

50%

7.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.7

WEBE

7.7 yards to go on 3rd down

71 scrimmage snaps

NORT

7.7 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

WEBE		NORT
433	Total yards	157
327	Passing yards	73
106	Rushing yards	84
20	First downs	9
3-15	3rd down	2-15
1-2	4th down	0-1
19/31	Comp/Att	15/26
10.5	Yards per pass	2.8
2.8	Yards per rush	2.3
1	Turnovers	1
6-65	Penalties	6-75
30:27	Possession	29:33

Fourth downs

24 calls

WEBE

8/10 with the model

−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

NORT

10/12 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 10:53 WEBE field goal on 4th & 3 at NORT 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.

Every call, priced (24)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

WEBE 7/15 scoring drives← own end zone →NORT 1/16 scoring drives

NORTFUM4 pl, 21 yds· own 10Q1

WEBEMISS4 pl, 6 yds· opp 23Q1

NORTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q1

WEBEPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 29Q1

NORTPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 6Q1

WEBEFG8 pl, 52 yds· own 36Q1

NORTPUNT5 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q1

WEBETD2 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ1

NORTPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q1

WEBETD9 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 19Q2

WEBEFG9 pl, 29 yds· opp 40Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 37Q2

WEBETD3 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q2

NORTPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 20Q2

WEBEPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q2

NORTEND2 pl, -10 yds· midfieldQ2

WEBETD5 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3

WEBEPUNT3 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q3

NORTSAF2 pl, -3 yds· own 3Q3

WEBEDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· opp 21Q3

NORTPUNT5 pl, 10 yds· own 12Q3

WEBEPUNT3 pl, -13 yds· own 48Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 15Q3

WEBEFG10 pl, 52 yds· own 45Q4

NORTPUNT5 pl, 9 yds· own 24Q4

WEBEINT4 pl, 16 yds· own 28Q4

NORTDOWNS7 pl, 21 yds· own 45Q4

WEBEPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 34Q4

NORTEND3 pl, 56 yds· own 19Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 10:53WEBESloan Calder 20 Yd Field Goal 39–0
• Q3 7:57WEBETeam Safety 36–0
• Q3 12:14WEBEJayleen Record 33 Yd pass from Richie Munoz (Sloan Calder Kick)34–0
• Q2 2:40WEBEJaden Thrower 17 Yd pass from Richie Munoz (Sloan Calder Kick)27–0
• Q2 5:28WEBESloan Calder 28 Yd Field Goal 20–0
• Q2 10:47WEBEDamon Bankston 7 Yd Run (Sloan Calder Kick)17–0
• Q1 0:19WEBEJacob Sharp 35 Yd pass from Richie Munoz (Sloan Calder Kick)10–0
• Q1 4:22WEBEKyle Thompson 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →