Jackson State vs. Texas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Jackson State
Texas State1-1
▸Final
Bobcat Stadium (TX)
JACKTeam statsTXST
400Total yards684
282Pass285
118Rush399
23First downs34
8-173rd down4-6
1Turnovers1
34:46Possession25:14
- Q4 6:48TXSTMalik Hornsby 8 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)34–77
- Q4 10:02JACKHayden Hagler 28 Yd pass from Zy McDonald (Matt Noll Kick)34–70
- Q4 14:52TXSTMalik Hornsby 24 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)27–70
- Q3 2:48JACKIsaiah Spencer 9 Yd pass from Zy McDonald (Matt Noll Kick)27–63
- Q3 8:05TXSTJahmyl Jeter 3 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)20–63
- Q2 0:24TXSTKole Wilson 20 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Mason Shipley Kick)20–56
- Q2 6:15TXSTAshtyn Hawkins 27 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Mason Shipley Kick)20–49
- Q2 8:15TXSTTJ Finley 6 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)20–42
- Q2 9:48TXSTTJ Finley 3 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)20–35
- Q2 11:11JACKIrv Mulligan 4 Yd Run (Matt Noll Kick)20–28
- Q2 13:01TXSTDonerio Davenport 9 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)13–28
- Q2 13:47JACKIrv Mulligan 9 Yd Run (Matt Noll Kick)13–21
- Q1 2:46TXSTJahmyl Jeter 15 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)6–21
- Q1 4:35JACKJason Brown 7 Yd Run (Matt Noll PAT blocked)6–14
- Q1 8:37TXSTDrew Donley 14 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Mason Shipley Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:18TXSTIsmail Mahdi 56 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
TXST −17.5
Against the number
TXST covered
line TXST −17.5
What the numbers say
- JACK played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TXST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 4.5
Kickoff152 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
TXST (top)JACK (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TXST 100%
Closing line
TXST −17.5
Closing total
61.5
Model line
—
Actual result
JACK 34 – 77 TXST
Jackson State
- PassJason Brown 16/26, 209 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAhmad Miller 13 CAR, 98 YDS
- RecKobe Paul 2 REC, 54 YDS
Texas State
- PassTJ Finley 17/21, 251 YDS, 3 TD
- RushMalik Hornsby 10 CAR, 133 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDrew Donley 3 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
24.8sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
145
Points / snap
0.77
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTXST up 36 entering the 4th quarter. Across 337 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
TXST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Jackson State vs. Texas State?
Jackson State 34, Texas State 77.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TXST) was correct.
JACK
TXST
35%
Success rate
72%
0.21
EPA / pass
0.84
0.30
EPA / rush
0.82
30%
Early-down success
72%
34%
Pass success
69%
36%
Rush success
74%
12%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
28%
3%
Stuffed rush rate
10%
57%
Pass rate
38%
8.7
Avg 3rd-down distance
4.5
JACK
8.7 yards to go on 3rd down
77 scrimmage snaps
TXST
4.5 yards to go on 3rd down
68 scrimmage snaps
| JACK | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 400 | Total yards | 684 |
| 282 | Passing yards | 285 |
| 118 | Rushing yards | 399 |
| 23 | First downs | 34 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 4-6 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 23/36 | Comp/Att | 19/25 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 11.4 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 9.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-86 | Penalties | 10-100 |
| 34:46 | Possession | 25:14 |
JACK
6/8 with the model
−2.2 pts · −0.0% win prob
TXST
2/2 with the model
nothing given up
Costliest call
Q4 10:02 JACK go for it on 4th & 25 at TXST 28. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishJACK 5/13 scoring drives← own end zone →TXST 11/13 scoring drives
TXSTTD2 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q1
JACKPUNT3 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q1
TXSTTD10 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1
JACKTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
TXSTTD5 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q1
JACKTD11 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q1
TXSTTD2 pl, 14 yds· opp 14Q2
JACKTD3 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2
TXSTTD3 pl, 42 yds· opp 42Q2
JACKINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 21Q2
TXSTTD4 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q2
JACKPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 17Q2
TXSTTD1 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q2
JACKPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 22Q2
TXSTTD10 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q2
JACKEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 30Q2
JACKPUNT7 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q3
TXSTTD8 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q3
JACKDOWNS7 pl, 48 yds· own 25Q3
TXSTINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 27Q3
JACKTD7 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q3
TXSTTD7 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q3
JACKTD10 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q4
TXSTTD7 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q4
JACKPUNT5 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q4
TXSTEND6 pl, 38 yds· own 17Q4
- Q4 6:48TXSTMalik Hornsby 8 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)34–77
- Q4 10:02JACKHayden Hagler 28 Yd pass from Zy McDonald (Matt Noll Kick)34–70
- Q4 14:52TXSTMalik Hornsby 24 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)27–70
- Q3 2:48JACKIsaiah Spencer 9 Yd pass from Zy McDonald (Matt Noll Kick)27–63
- Q3 8:05TXSTJahmyl Jeter 3 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)20–63
- Q2 0:24TXSTKole Wilson 20 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Mason Shipley Kick)20–56
- Q2 6:15TXSTAshtyn Hawkins 27 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Mason Shipley Kick)20–49
- Q2 8:15TXSTTJ Finley 6 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)20–42
- Q2 9:48TXSTTJ Finley 3 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)20–35
- Q2 11:11JACKIrv Mulligan 4 Yd Run (Matt Noll Kick)20–28
- Q2 13:01TXSTDonerio Davenport 9 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)13–28
- Q2 13:47JACKIrv Mulligan 9 Yd Run (Matt Noll Kick)13–21
- Q1 2:46TXSTJahmyl Jeter 15 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)6–21
- Q1 4:35JACKJason Brown 7 Yd Run (Matt Noll PAT blocked)6–14
- Q1 8:37TXSTDrew Donley 14 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Mason Shipley Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:18TXSTIsmail Mahdi 56 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →