#2TJ Finley

QB·Texas State·20235.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

TJ Finley is a Dual-Threat QB for Texas State. TJ's 2023 season ranks in the 15th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 456 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So TJ Finley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

279/414 Comp/Att3439 Pass yards24 Pass TD8 INT67.4% Comp %

Rushing

81 Rush yards5 Rush TD78 Carries1.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency15
Volume100
Dual-Threat88
Consistency82
Clutch82

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)15th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.08 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.90 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Jackson State.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Baylor	W42-31	-8.3	22/30	298	3	0	97.2	18	1	0.80
2	@UTSA	L13-20	5.4	16/30	211	0	0	26.1	-28	0	0.00
3	vsJackson State	W77-34	—	17/21	251	3	0	90.8	20	2	0.90
4	vsNevada	W35-24	-22.0	25/31	295	2	1	37.7	22	0	0.36
5	@Southern Miss	W50-36	-14.4	19/24	338	2	0	—	-2	0	0.65
6	@Louisiana	L30-34	0.4	30/40	326	2	1	81.3	—	—	0.45
7	vsUL Monroe	W21-20	-21.6	24/46	222	2	1	26.7	13	0	0.27
9	vsTroy	L13-31	9.8	24/38	262	1	2	56.0	7	0	0.39
10	vsGeorgia Southern	W45-24	-5.2	25/31	301	3	0	90.2	18	2	0.61
11	@Coastal Carolina	L23-31	-1.2	6/11	49	0	0	24.2	6	0	0.07
12	@Arkansas State	L31-77	-6.3	37/55	366	3	2	62.8	27	0	0.36
13	vsSouth Alabama	W52-44	5.1	19/28	368	3	1	87.8	-9	0	0.81
20	vsRice	W45-21	-10.2	15/29	152	0	0	24.7	-11	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

50.8%

Passing plays

95.9%

Rushing plays

10.9%

Standard downs

41.7%

Passing downs

71.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.33
Passing downs: 0.54
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.43 / 0.34

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.