UAlbany vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UALBTeam statsBUF
- Q4 4:53BUFChance Morrow 5 Yd pass from Elijah Holmes (Oliver Hautanen Kick)17–21
- Q3 3:23UALBJustus Murray Jr. 14 Yd pass from Kai Colon (RJ Kocan Kick)17–14
- Q2 0:15UALBRJ Kocan 46 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 2:46BUFChance Morrow 4 Yd pass from Elijah Holmes (Oliver Hautanen Kick)7–14
- Q2 11:23BUFChance Morrow 9 Yd pass from Elijah Holmes (Oliver Hautanen Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:02UALBTavahri Groves 14 Yd pass from Kai Colon (RJ Kocan Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Buffalo walked in the underdog and walked out with the win. What actually happened.
Buffalo wasn't supposed to win this one. They knock off UAlbany, 21-17 at UB Stadium. Nobody pulled clear, and Buffalo had the better end of the last ten minutes. Chance Morrow caught seven passes for 48 yards, three of them for touchdowns.
- PassElijah Holmes 26/47, 189 YDS, 3 TD
- RushMessiah Burch 8 CAR, 74 YDS
- RecChance Morrow 7 REC, 48 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUALB up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 4:53BUF +40%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 E.Holmes pass complete short right to #6 C.Morrow caught at UALB00, for 5 yards to the UALB00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 6:43UALB +27%
#38 G.Myers punt 45 yards to the BUF21 #41 M.Greer return 8 yards to the BUF29 (#17 S.Boyer) PENALTY UALB Holding (#1 J.Pruitt) 10 yards from BUF29 to BUF39
- Q3 3:23UALB +27%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Colón pass complete short middle to #15 J.Murray Jr. caught at BUF01, for 14 yards to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 6:43BUF +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 E.Holmes rush right for 2 yards gain to the BUF41 (#41 D.Dunathan; #1 J.Pruitt) PENALTY BUF Holding (#55 T.Barr) 10 yards from BUF39 to BUF29. NO…
- Q4 11:34UALB +18%
#38 G.Myers punt 43 yards to the BUF35, out of bounds at BUF35
- Q1 3:02UALB +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Colón pass complete short middle to #7 T.Groves caught at BUF01, for 14 yards to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of UAlbany vs. Buffalo?
UAlbany 17, Buffalo 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BUF) was correct.
| UALB | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 276 | Total yards | 340 |
| 204 | Passing yards | 189 |
| 72 | Rushing yards | 151 |
| 19 | First downs | 18 |
| 5-19 | 3rd down | 10-21 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 19/41 | Comp/Att | 26/47 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 4.0 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-66 | Penalties | 10-119 |
| 28:07 | Possession | 31:53 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:59 BUF punt on 4th & 12 at UALB 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:53BUFChance Morrow 5 Yd pass from Elijah Holmes (Oliver Hautanen Kick)17–21
- Q3 3:23UALBJustus Murray Jr. 14 Yd pass from Kai Colon (RJ Kocan Kick)17–14
- Q2 0:15UALBRJ Kocan 46 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 2:46BUFChance Morrow 4 Yd pass from Elijah Holmes (Oliver Hautanen Kick)7–14
- Q2 11:23BUFChance Morrow 9 Yd pass from Elijah Holmes (Oliver Hautanen Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:02UALBTavahri Groves 14 Yd pass from Kai Colon (RJ Kocan Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects BUF -17.9 (85% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
18 of Buffalo's 21 points came from Elijah Holmes
Buffalo walked in the underdog and walked out with the win. What actually happened.
Third down decided the possession count
Buffalo converted 10 of 21 third downs (48%) to UAlbany's 26%, led by Elijah Holmes (8/19) and Chance Morrow (4/7). Buffalo sacked UAlbany's quarterback 3 times to UAlbany's 1, chiefly Logan Goodwin (1 sack), Stevie Bracey (1 sack) and Christopher Climes (1 sack). That's what carried Buffalo.
Where it swung
The game turned on a handful of snaps. Elijah Holmes's 9-yard throw to Chance Morrow for a touchdown on 3rd-and-7 at Q2 11:23. Then Messiah Burch's 47-yard run on 1st-and-10 at Q3 00:19. Later, Elijah Holmes's 20-yard throw to Jaylen Andrews on 2nd-and-14 at Q4 06:43.
Cumulative margin after each quarter (lead change). Above the line = UALB ahead, below = BUFF ahead.
Who carried it
Elijah Holmes threw for 189 yards on 47 attempts with three touchdowns and ran seven times for 17 yards, including three of them from inside the 20, eight third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Chance Morrow caught seven passes for 48 yards, three of them for touchdowns, including three of them from inside the 20 and four third-down conversions. Messiah Burch ran eight times for 74 yards. For UAlbany, Justus Murray Jr caught two passes for 26 yards, one of them for a touchdown. Aidan Semo threw for 13 yards on five attempts and ran five times for 9 yards. BJ Norman caught six passes for 67 yards. SaVeon Brown was the disruptive one for Buffalo: 1 TFL, 1 INT, 5 tackles.
The way it played out
UAlbany struck first through Tavahri Groves, Buffalo led 14-10 at the half and the final points came on a late touchdown by Elijah Holmes.
The disruptive ones
Three names to keep: SaVeon Brown (1 TFL, 1 INT, 5 tackles) for Buffalo, Logan Goodwin (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 tackles) for Buffalo and Stevie Bracey (1 sack, 2 TFLs, 6 tackles) for Buffalo. 2 of Buffalo's 3 sacks came from the defensive line, which is how this defense has generated pressure since 2016.
How it graded
The closing line had Buffalo -18.5. UAlbany covered. The total was 47.5; the teams combined for 38, an under. Justus Murray Jr accounted for 6 of UAlbany's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
A program win for Buffalo; a gut-check loss UAlbany won't soon forget.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →