Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)BTN
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ILL 1595
UAB 1184
Projected spread
ILL -25.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
ILL
97% to win
Market spread
ILL -27.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
97%
ILL (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ILL Elo 1595, UAB Elo 1184) plus home-field advantage. That projects ILL -25.6 (97% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUAB 3% · ILL 97%
Pick: ILL
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UAB2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedILL
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.2142%
Success rate
48%1.33
Key matchups · Pro
- ILL rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. UAB rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge UAB.
- ILL pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. UAB pass defense (0.52 allowed) — edge UAB.
- UAB rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. ILL rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge UAB.
FAQ
Who will win UAB vs. Illinois?
Gridpex's model favors Illinois with a 97% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UAB vs. Illinois?
The model projects Illinois by 25.6.
What time is UAB vs. Illinois and what channel is it on?
Fri, Sep 4, 1:00 AM on BTN, at Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL).
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Illinois at 97% to win, projecting Illinois by 25.6.