Doyt L. Perry StadiumESPN+
Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelTARL 70% · BGSU 30%
Pick: TARL
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
FAQ
Who will win Tarleton State Texans vs. Bowling Green?
Gridpex's model favors Tarleton State Texans with a 70% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Tarleton State Texans vs. Bowling Green?
The model projects Tarleton State Texans by 7.2.
What time is Tarleton State Texans vs. Bowling Green and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 5, 4:00 PM on ESPN+, at Doyt L. Perry Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Tarleton State Texans at 70% to win, projecting Tarleton State Texans by 7.2.